This Monday, the NHL will hold its traditional draft lottery, used to determine the order of selection of the 16 teams that have not reached the playoffs.
This lottery also involves clubs that have acquired first-round picks from non-qualified teams.
Between 1995 and 2012, the regulations established by the Bettman circuit stipulated that no team could improve its lot by more than four positions compared to its place in the general classification. Thus, only the last five teams in the standings (or a rival holding the pick of that team) could dream of the top spot.
However, before the 2014–15 season, significant changes were made to the formula. For the 2015 lottery, the odds changed, providing worse odds for the club finishing the schedule in 30th place (last in the NHL at the time).
In addition to recalculating the odds so that many teams can improve their fate, the possibility of speaking in the front row of the draft has also been granted to any team winning the lottery, rather than limiting the potential for progression to four. rungs.
From 2016 to 2019, the first three speaking rights were decided by the draw, in order to ensure the team having taken the last place not to slip out of the top-4.
The context-adjusted lottery of 2020
In 2020, at the end of the campaign cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic, the New York Rangers won the lottery, rising to the top of the table. The New Yorkers were one of eight teams to lose in the playoff qualifying round.
The League was forced to make further changes to the formula after the enforced break, so the lottery became a two-step procedure.
The seven clubs left out of the qualifiers when the schedule ended on March 12 did not win the lottery in June. Then on August 10, Lady Luck smiled on Rangers, who had a 12.5% chance of selecting first in this second lottery (for the whole year, this probability was initially 0.3%).
Historically, one of the situations in which a team had the most significant improvement came in 2007 when the Chicago Blackhawks, having finished the season ranked 26th out of 30, were granted the right to select the one of the best American players the NHL has seen, Patrick Kane.
Ten years later, the New Jersey Devils made the same four-position jump in the lottery, adding eventual captain Nico Hischier to the roster.
Ironically, the Colorado Avalanche’s three-point slide, despite their last place overall, would allow them to claim fourth place for one of the best defensemen of the last decade in Cale Makar.
At the same time, the Philadelphia Flyers were preparing to take an important step back by preferring Nolan Patrick to Miro Heiskanen (Dallas, 3rd place) and Makar.
As for the Canadians, the lottery carried out on the sidelines of the 2018 auction had led to a move up one position (from 4th to 3rd) for CH.
After the selections of Rasmus Dahlin and Andrei Svechnikov by Buffalo and Carolina, the Habs turned to Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
The most recent changes
In 2021, only the top two auction selection ranks were decided by lottery, rather than the top three in the past.
Since last year, a formation can advance a maximum of 10 positions. Thus, only 11 of the 16 clubs excluded from the playoffs will be able to hold on to the hope of selecting Connor Bedard next month, in Nashville.
Also as of 2022, any team cannot win more than two lotteries within a five-year interval.
Thus, the Edmonton Oilers would have been affected by this regulation when they had the luxury of selecting first four times, including three years in a row, in 2010 (Taylor Hall), 2011 (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), 2012 (Nail Yakupov) and 2015 (Connor McDavid).
In the two most recent editions of the draft lottery – Owen Power in Buffalo in 2021 and Juraj Slafkovsky in Montreal in 2022 – the team with the best odds of speaking in first place has seen its 18.5% chance paid.
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| year | FAVORITE TEAM | WINNER (RANK) | 1ST CHOICE | SELECTED PLAYER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | Ottawa | Los Angeles* (7) | Ottawa | Bryan Berard |
| 1996 | Ottawa | Ottawa (1) | Ottawa | Chris Phillips |
| 1997 | Boston | Boston (1) | Boston | Joe Thornton |
| 1998 | Tampa Bay | San Jose# (2) | Tampa Bay | Vincent Lecavalier |
| 1999 | Tampa Bay | Chicago**(8) | Atlanta | Patrick Stefan |
| 2000 | Atlanta | NY Islanders (5) | NY Islanders | Rick DiPietro |
| 2001 | NY Islanders | Atlanta (3) | Atlanta | Ilya Kovalchuk |
| 2002 | Atlanta | Florida^ (3) | columbus | Rick Nash |
| 2003 | carolina | Florida^^ (4) | Pittsburgh | Marc-Andre Fleury |
| 2004 | Pittsburgh | Washington (3) | Washington | Alexander Ovechkin |
| 2005 | – | Pittsburgh+ (1*) | Pittsburgh | Sidney Crosby |
| 2006 | St.Louis | St. Louis (1) | St.Louis | Erik Johnson |
| 2007 | philadelphia | Chicago (5) | Chicago | Patrick Kane |
| 2008 | Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay (1) | Tampa Bay | Steven Stamkos |
| 2009 | NY Islanders | NY Islanders (1) | NY Islanders | John Tavares |
| 2010 | Edmonton | Edmonton (1) | Edmonton | Taylor Hall |
| 2011 | Edmonton | New Jersey++ (8) | Edmonton | Ryan Nugent Hopkins |
| 2012 | columbus | Edmonton (2) | Edmonton | Nail Yakupov |
| 2013 | Florida | Colorado (2) | Colorado | Nathan MacKinnon |
| 2014 | buffalo | Florida (2) | Florida | Aaron Ekblad |
| 2015 | buffalo | Edmonton (3) | Edmonton | Connor McDavid |
| 2016 | Toronto | Toronto (1) | Toronto | Auston Matthews |
| 2017 | Colorado | New Jersey (5) | New Jersey | Nico Hischier |
| 2018 | buffalo | Buffalo (1) | buffalo | Rasmus Dahlin |
| 2019 | Ottawa*** | New Jersey (3) | New Jersey | Jack Hughes |
| 2020 | Detroit | NY Rangers^^^ (14) | NY Rangers | Alexis Lafreniere |
| 2021 | buffalo | Buffalo (1) | buffalo | Owen Power |
| 2022 | Montreal | Montreal (1) | Montreal | Juraj Slafkovsky |
| 2023 | Anaheim |
* – Los Angeles could increase by a maximum of four ranks (7th to 3rd). The Kings selected defenseman Aki Berg.
# – San Jose won the lottery in 1998, but Tampa Bay had the option of swapping pick tier with the Sharks and opted to pick first overall.
** – Chicago could increase by a maximum of four ranks (8th to 4th). The Rangers obtained the choice of the Blackhawks in a trade (via Vancouver and Tampa Bay) and selected Pavel Brendl.
^ – Florida traded its first pick to Columbus.
^^ – Florida traded their first pick to Pittsburgh.
+ – The 2004-2005 season canceled due to the labor dispute, the 30 teams participated in a lottery with one to three balls depending on the rankings and lotteries won in the previous three years. The Penguins, a
of the four teams to have three balls, won the lottery and picked Sydney Crosby.
++ – New Jersey could increase by a maximum of four ranks (8th to 4th). The Devils selected Adam Larsson.
*** – The Senators’ choice belonged to the Avalanche after the Matt Duchene trade in 2017.
^^^ – Rangers won a two-step lottery after being eliminated in the qualifying round of the playoffs. New York had a 0.3% chance of speaking first.
