With the salary cap and parity more present than ever in the NHL, the draft is often the solution for a low-ranking team to begin its rise to the top. But before setting their sights on a hope, the teams excluded from the playoffs participate in a lottery in order to establish the order of selection. Here’s everything you need to know in preparation for the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery.
Who, when, what, how?
On May 8 at 8 p.m., just before the start of the third second-round game between the Las Vegas Golden Knights and the Edmonton Oilers, the NHL will announce the winners of the lottery. The draw will take place beforehand and Bettman Tour assistant commissioner Bill Daly will announce the order of selection starting with the 16th pick.
The 16 teams excluded from the playoffs participate in the lottery. However, not all of them can have the coveted first choice. Teams can make a good maximum of 10 selection ranks, which means that only the last 11 teams can get the right to speak first. Odds of winning the lottery are based on ranking, with the team finishing last having the highest chance of winning the lottery (18.5%) and the team ranked 17th lowest (0.5%).
Two draws will take place. The first team drawn will have first pick or jump 10 spots if they finished 21st or better overall last season. If one of these teams is drawn, the team that finished last will automatically get the first pick in the draft, in the case of the 2023 lottery, it is the Anaheim Ducks. The California formation therefore has a 25.5% chance of obtaining the first choice, if we add its 18.5% initial chances of winning the lottery with the 7% shared between the teams from 17th to 21st place.
The second draw will be used to determine the second selection or once again, a team between 17th and 20th place to make a jump of 10 places. In the event that one of these teams wins, the Blue Jackets (31st) will obtain the second right to speak. Other selections will be determined by reverse ranking.
In the case of teams in the playoffs. They will then select taking into account the reversed general classification, but also the eliminatory round reached. This means that selections 17 to 24 will belong to the teams eliminated in the first round and will be in reverse order of the final regular season standings.
*= The Flames finished 16th, but were kicked out of the Western Conference playoffs, while the 17th-placed Florida Panthers made the Eastern playoffs. The Flames are therefore considered the 17th ranked team.
In the case of teams in the playoffs. They will then select taking into account the reversed general classification, but also the eliminatory round reached. This means that selections 17 to 24 will belong to the teams eliminated in the first round and will be in reverse order of the final regular season standings.
A little history
Although the lottery appeared in 1995, this format has been used since 2021. You can also consult the history of the lottery. On 10 occasions, the team with the most chances won the lottery. This choice has never been compromised in such circumstances.
Chicago (1999) and New Jersey (2011) won the lottery as the team with the 8th greatest chance of winning. However, the rules at the time allowed for a four rank voucher only. So they selected 4th overall.
The New York Rangers have won the 2020 lottery with a 0.3% chance. In a special lottery due to COVID-19, the Rangers were part of a group of teams eliminated in the qualifying round of the playoffs. That group had a 2.5% chance of winning, and then each of the eight teams in that group had a 12.5% chance of getting their hands on that pick. They finally selected Alexis Lafrenière. The Rangers finished the season ranked 17th.
The Oilers and Panthers have won the lottery three times since 1995. Edmonton also benefited from the Devils’ 2011 win to take the No. 1 spot. For their part, the Panthers have drafted first on only one occasion, selecting Aaron Ekblad in 2014. In 2002 and 2003, Florida traded the first pick to Columbus (Rick Nash) and Pittsburgh (Marc-André Fleury).
