After four weeks of professional career, the rookie quarterback impresses. Jayden Daniels, second choice in the 2024 draft, has record passing times. If the conclusion may seem hasty, the comparison remains promising. And after years of hardship, Washington does not shy away from his pleasure.
Especially when a “kid” is carrying the team. At 23 years old, the former LSU resident looks like a veteran, he plays fair and improves his teammates. In one month of competition in 2024, his team is the most efficient offense in the NFL while the defense is the worst in the league. The Commanders have a record of 3 wins for 1 loss and they owe it to Jayden Daniels.
Jayden Daniels power 4
Everything is happening very fast, as fast as Jayden Daniels on the field. In four games, the quarterback amassed statistical performances.
In “classic” numbers, Daniels became the most accurate quarterback over a four-game series to open the season. It is not a question of rookies but of all players combined in his position. Jayden has completed 82.1% of his passes to open his career and his 2024 campaign. A percentage better than Tom Brady 2007 (79.2%) and Geno Smith 2022 (77.3%).
With Jayden, passing is good, running is even better. The quarterback has this modern ability to gain yards on the ground. Kliff Kingsbury does not hesitate to design racing games expressly for him. Jayden Daniels became the second quarterback to rush for 200 yards in his first four career games. Second behind… Robert Griffin III, you can’t make this up.
In terms of efficiency, advanced statistics bring a little more depth to the analysis. Once again, EPAs are the best indicators of the quality of play of quarterbacks, even if they are not independent of those around them. Over the first four games of his career (still) Jayden Daniels peaks at 0.398 EPA/game (1er in 2024, after 4 weeks).
For comparison, only two players have done better than him since 1999. Patrick Mahomes started his career with 0.482 EPA/game. And in a different context, Kurt Warner started in the NFL at age 27 with 0.622 EPA/game. Be careful though, four good first matches are no guarantee of long-term success. Injuries destroy careers (Robert Griffin III) and situations change quickly (Kyle Allen and Trevor Siemian).
Tomorrow belongs to us
Being so successful over 4 games is a good start, obviously. But the most important thing remains to transpose this into the future. Without turning into Nostradamus, it is possible to observe interesting markers, both positive and interrogative.
The NFL is at a turning point. The passing game is losing steam. The race is gaining strength again. Defenses adapted in the face of a thriving passing era that peaked in 2020 with over 0.1 EPA/play. Since then its effectiveness has declined and stagnated around 0.025 EPA/game. The racing game is progressing slowly but surely.
This is good, Jayden Daniels has the ability to gain yards running efficiently. On the 19 runs called for him by his coordinator, the quarterback peaks at 0.31 EPA/play.
Especially since this does not take into account the number one strength of the leader of Washington. Daniels knows how to create out of order during passing situations. When he has no solutions, once again, he can move his team forward alone. This season he attempted 23 improvised runs when his receivers were well defended. With a percentage of scramble by 16%, the quarterback is above the national average, the highest in the last ten years, at 5.3%. In these situations, it is once again very effective (0.53 EPA/game).
Jayden Daniels finds the end zone on the ground 🏃♂️
📺: #WASvsAZ on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/l1OwB1KY7M— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
A soothing system
Jayden Daniels is therefore in tune with the modern NFL and what it asks of its increasingly mobile quarterbacks. In addition, the job also (and above all) happens in the air. On that side of the ball, Daniels is a little more “cold”. He throws fast, 2.52 seconds on average (2n/a faster in 2024), and in short zones, 6.4 yards on average for his targets (2n/a lowest distance in 2024).
76.6% of the Commanders' first play calls are runs or screen passes. And Kliff Kingsbury makes it easy for him to read in a very static attack. Washington uses 47.3% of the movement time before committing the ball (29th attack). This system is beneficial to him, Daniels performs well against blitz. However, and finally, if Daniels pushes the ball far a few times (9.4% of the time; NFL: 17.8%) he remains particularly effective on these throws (0.49 EPA/game).
To conclude, if Jayden Daniels displays a level of play well above expectations for the start of his career, we must not forget that the sample is small. The quarterback outperforms in all areas of play, while keeping the same trends as the average, which is good news. However, it is highly possible to see a regression in the running game and short passes for the future as the deviation from the average is high. The defenses will adapt to Washington's current style. In the meantime, let's enjoy.
