After dropping the hot reactions, it’s time to analyze the 2023 NFL Draft with the characteristic coldness of statistical analyzes.
The method used is the same as in 2022. For more details, please refer to the corresponding article.
To sum up, the accumulation of several Mock Drafts issued by different media, makes it possible to create a “Consensus Mock Draft”. It generally predicts the Draft quite well. Without being an absolute truth, this table makes it possible to give an approximate statistical value of “Reach” and “Steal”. The analysis assigns each choice a value. It also calculates for each player the difference in value between the moment he was chosen and the moment he should have been chosen.
The idea of the study is not to predict which rookie promotion will do best. Rather, it’s a matter of determining which team had the most logical process over the three draft days.
The database used is that of the Pro Football Network media. This table is made up of mock drafts from professional media.
The Steelers and Eagles are a hit
Without too many surprises, the drafts of the Steelers and Eagles, acclaimed by the specialized media, are the best ranked.
Likewise, the Lions who took a lot of players very high in the process are near the bottom of the rankings.
By looking at individual choices, it is possible to determine the best and worst selections.
Initially, Anthony Richardson was considered the worst choice according to this model. But this is biased by the fact that trades do not necessarily take place in mock drafts and that the Cardinals, initially in place of the Colts, did not need a quarterback.
Easier to choose too soon
It is not surprising to find here the choices of Jalen Carter and Jack Campbell, already announced as “Steals” (bargains) and “Reachs” (players chosen too early) on the evening of the first round.
In the draft game the Eagles and Steelers seem to have had the upper hand by letting the draft come to them. But the results of this study are based on the notion of steal, which can be widely debated. As analyst Tej Seth aptly explains:
It makes a lot of sense that picks that are “reaches” usually turn out to be “reaches”, but “steals” aren’t actually “steals”. In fact, several teams have to pass over a player for him to become a “steal”, whereas only one team is enough to make a “reach”. Collective wisdom is always superior to individual wisdom.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see average teams having the most successful drafts when they are re-evaluated 4 years later.
