Kick-off on the night of Thursday to Friday at 2:15 a.m.
Cleveland Browns (2-8) – Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)
Cleveland welcomes the Pittsburgh Steelers this Thursday evening for an opposition with the air of a David versus Goliath fight. Because these two teams currently find themselves in diametrically opposed situations. Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the league, almost guaranteed to participate in the playoffs (98% chance), and is now aiming for the AFC North title. On the other hand, Cleveland is true to itself. Despite a squad that seemed solid at the start of the season, it collapsed and only plays for its pride.
But let's not sell the bear's skin before we kill it, because the Browns are just overflowing with pride. Furthermore, while divisional matches are always uncertain, this state of affairs is all the more true in the AFC North. Just ask the Ravens what they think of this Cleveland team to be sure… At the end of a short week and with all the lights being green, this trip has all the makings of a trap match for the Steelers.
Without Watson, Cleveland is doing a little better (but not too much)
Certainly, the Browns offense is better with Jameis Winston at quarterback. Certainly, this team is capable of producing brilliant shots, like theupset against the Ravens. But Cleveland remains inexorably among the worst teams in the league. If there's anything better with Winston, the offense still ranks second-to-last in the NFL in net yards per play this season. Not much better in EPA per play as the offense only ranks 22nd in that area, not helped by a Nick Chubb who is no longer the player he was before his knee surgery, and by an uncertain offensive line handicapped by injuries. A reason for hope despite everything with the rise in power of aerial targets, notably David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy (see below).
It might also be time to stop thinking the Browns have a good defense. They are today in 20th place in the league for opposing EPA per play, and 27th for yards conceded per play. Rather solid against the pass, they are on the other hand one of the poor performers in terms of rushing defense (132 yards conceded per game, 23rd NFL total). But the most worrying thing is that this defense seems to let go over time. Last Sunday, in a fest of missed tackles, they made Taysom Hill look like the best player in the league.
The Steelers as strong as steel
Without being brilliant (20th in EPA), the attack led by Russell Wilson seems more incisive than at the start of the season. Since starting, the veteran has completed 73 of 121 passes (60.3%) for 942 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. Well helped by George Pickens (see below), he can also count on running back Najee Harris, a real pillar of the running game. In 10 games, the 26-year-old runner wore the leather 175 times for 708 yards and three touchdowns. He also made six explosive plays of 20 yards or more and converted 35 first downs.
But if the Steelers are at the top of the AFC North today, they owe it mainly to their defense. The squad led by TJ Watt (7.5 sacks and 4 fumbles caused this season) is a machine for annihilating opposing attacks. But if his front 7 is terrifying, it however presents some weaknesses in terms of air defense, with a squad of defensive backs which is located in the soft underbelly of the NFL. Like the Achilles tendon, can this sector lead to the fall of this iron defense?
Players to watch: Jerry Jeudy & George Pickens
Duel of receivers on the menu this Thursday evening!
Arriving in the spring from Denver, Jerry Jeudy is starting to gain depth in Cleveland's aerial game. The 25-year-old now presents himself as the successor to Amari Cooper, with nearly 300 yards accumulated over the last three weeks. An increase in production which rhymes with the tenure of Jameis Winston, while the quarterback targets him on average 10 times per game. In the general slump of Ohio, he is also the most prolific receiver this season, with 560 yards and 2 touchdowns on the clock. Jerry Jeudy will definitely be one to watch this… Thursday.
On the other side of the field, the catalyst for the aerial game is George Pickens. In a rather sluggish attack, the star receiver remains the Steelers' best offensive weapon. With 728 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an average of 15.2 yards per reception, he already has 2.5 times more gains than the team's second target, tight end Pat Freiermuth (295 yards). Probably lined up against a Denzel Ward who is experiencing physical problems, he will have a chance to shine.
The prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
In a season where all they have left is panache, expect to see the Browns sell themselves dearly. And they know how to operate in this area. Even if the balance tilts irremediably towards Pittsburgh, the game is perhaps far from being over.
