Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10 wins – 7 losses, 1st in NFC South, 3rd in NFC
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have just won the NFC South and qualified for the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. But the journey was strewn with pitfalls and Tampa had to wait until the final day. And even in this last match, they only managed to overthrow a modest New Orleans team at the very end of the match. More fear than harm and the main thing is there: another participation in the playoffs, the second of the Baker Mayfield era.
Todd Bowles' men are exactly the image of their quarterback. Real fighters who don't give up. The attack was able to find solutions to compensate for the absences. The defense managed to progress throughout the meetings. Tampa Bay arrives with good momentum after having a little scare. With six wins in the last seven games, the Bucs could once again play spoilsport.
How did they get there?
The Buccaneers were one of the surprise teams of the 2023 season. Winning their division, they even managed to eliminate the Eagles, who were favorites on paper. This earned Baker Mayfield a well-deserved contract extension. Ditto for the captain of the attack Mike Evans and his friend Lavonte David in defense, both titled in 2021. However, the team did not really strengthen, especially defensively, and it was felt. On the other hand, the draft was rather successful with Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving in particular. The runner established himself as a key player in the offense while the receiver finished strong with six touchdowns in the final five games.
Overall, Tampa alternated between the very good and the (much) less good. The prestigious victory against Detroit in the second week is one of the highlights of their season, as is the beating inflicted on the best defense in the league (the Chargers) in week 15. But the Pirates also experienced a hole in air with four defeats in a row between weeks 7 and 10. In addition, they lost twice against Atlanta and that could have cost them dearly, just like the defeat against the Cowboys having nothing left to play during the week 16.
Badly off to a 4 wins for 6 losses, Baker Mayfield put the team on his back and had the best season of his career (4500 yards, 71.4%, 41 TD, 16 Ints, 106.8 rating, 3TD on the ground). Helped a little by the Falcons who were disoriented in the second half of the season, the Buccaneers even have the luxury of being the number three seed. With a better record against conference opponents, they therefore toast the Rams (also 10-7). They thus avoid the Vikings that no one wanted to play in the first round.
The key player: Bucky Irving
We no longer present the executives that are Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, who has just equaled Jerry Rice with 11 consecutive seasons at 1000 yards or more receiving (in 11 career seasons!). The key player for Tampa Bay is Bucky Irving, the nugget chosen in the fourth round of the last draft. The runner accumulated 1,122 yards on the ground, 8 touchdowns and 392 yards in the air. The Bucs' ground game was a weak point, that's no longer the case. The team is the fourth most prolific on the ground this season averaging 149.2 yards per game. And Bucky Irving is far from being a stranger to it.
Named player of the week 13, the 22-year-old managed to take some matches into his own hands. Bucky Irving has exceeded 100 rushing yards three times this year, including a performance against the Chargers. And as soon as he exceeds 100 cumulative yards between passing and running, his team wins (6 victories). A more than serious candidate for the title of rookie of the year, he will be one of the solutions for the Buccaneers to take pressure off Baker Mayfield. A success (or more) in the playoffs will necessarily pass through his hands and his legs.
Why are they going to go through with it?
The Buccaneers have one of the best offenses in the league. When they lose, it is rarely the offensive squad that is called into question. She can be very explosive and surprise even the best defenses. Baker Mayfield is on fire this season, Mike Evans (74 receptions, 1004 yards, 11 TDs) is still on top despite a small injury which deprived him of three games.
The young people became more comfortable as the year progressed. Bucky Irving first of all but also Jalen McMillan (13 games, 37 receptions, 461 yards, 8 TDs) who gained momentum after Chris Godwin's injury. Cade Otton (14 games, 59 receptions, 600 yards, 4 TDs) has progressed to the tight end position. Rachaad White (144 carries, 613 yards, 3 TDs on the ground, 393 yards in the air, 6 TDs) lost playing time to Irving. However, he was able to find flaws when the rookie couldn't. He offers an interesting alternative to Liam Coen (offensive coordinator).
The attack is very comprehensive and has various threats. And it shows in the statistics. The Buccaneers recorded 8 games with 30 points or more, with peaks of 51 against the Saints, 40 against the Chargers and 48 against the Panthers. They are thus fourth in points scored per game (29.7), in rushing yards per game (147.3), third in yards in the air (250.4) and in total yards (410) and finally fifth in number of touchdowns. A downside, however, is the 39 sacks conceded.
Only the Broncos kept them under 10 points (7 in week 3) and since then, they have never gone below 20 points. In short, you have to get up early to stop the gang in Mayfield.
Why won't they go?
The defense has made some progress during the season but remains the weak point of this team, especially in the air. She is only twentieth with 345 yards conceded per game. She is even thirtieth with 245 yards conceded on average to opposing passers. Additionally, the air defense fails to intercept the ball with only 7 interceptions, sixth worst total in the league. Overall, it's even recovering the ball that poses a problem for Todd Bowles. In total, they caused only 22 turnovers, the worst score of all the teams qualified for the playoffs.
The small bright spot in the picture comes from the ground defense. With just under 100 yards conceded per game, the Buccaneers are the sixth best team in the league in this area. THE pass rushhe too, was rather effective with 44 sacks (eighth in the league). In high-stakes matches, this can be a real asset. Despite everything, the defense remains very average with 22.9 points conceded per game. Certainly the injuries in the backfield didn't help. But in the playoffs, where the light sometimes comes from opposing turnovers, Tampa Bay is too fair, just like in air defense. If sometimes it's not the defense that wins championships, the Bucs' defense is too limited to go all the way this year.
Injured players
The main absentee for the Buccaneers will be Chris Godwin. Mike Evans' sidekick joined the injured list with an ankle injury in late October. The attack managed to find solutions but its absence is necessarily problematic.
The other downside is the multitude of injuries affecting safeties and cornerbacks, the team's weak point. Bryce Hall (ankle), Troy Hill (foot/knee), Christian Izien (pectoral) and Jordan Whitehead (neck) are on the injured list. Mike Edwards, Jamel Dean and Antoine Winfield are all hampered by minor injuries and are doubtful for the first round. This is a lot (perhaps too much) for this already struggling air defense. Another point to remember, Cade Otton is also uncertain. Even if he should be able to hold his position, he will not be 100%.
Prognosis
The Buccaneers have home field advantage and face the Washington Commanders, seeded number 6 in Wild Card Round. If the attack is on a good day, the Buccaneers can pose real problems for the Commanders, who are not used to the playoffs. Their defense is very good against the pass (3rd) but rather poor against the running game (31st). Their offensive strong point is the ground game, the strong point of Tampa's defense. Jayden Daniels had an impressive season, certainly. But although he is capable of finding solutions in the most complicated situations, he remains a rookie who is discovering the playoffs against the tough guys that the Bucs are starting to be. The path becomes clearly complicated later with the Eagles or the Packers in Divisional RoundEdit.
If nothing is impossible for this attack, the defense is too fair: the Buccaneers spend a turn and lose in Divisional RoundEdit.
