Pittsburgh Steelers: 10 wins – 7 losses, 2nd AFC North, 6th AFC
For the 5th consecutive year, the Pittsburgh Steelers finished the regular season with a positive result. And for the 4th time in five years, they qualified for the post-season. An already impressive performance in such a competitive NFL. Except that a historic franchise like Pittsburgh cannot be satisfied with that. The Yellow & Black have not won in the playoffs since 2016 and a conference final lost to the Patriots.
Once again driven by its defense this season, Mike Tomlin's team will have to improve its offensive performance to hope to stop this negative series.
How did they get there?
First, by winning 8 of their first 10 games. The start of the season was indeed almost perfect for the Yellow & Black. Solid against teams known to be weaker (Raiders, Giants, Falcons), they also made big shots by beating teams that are now qualified for the playoffs (Broncos, Chargers, Commanders). And yet everything was not guaranteed at the start of the season with the arrival of a new quarterback, Russell Wilson, injured even before week 1.
Justin Fields was forced to fill in and came out with an honorable 4-2. The subsequent tenure of the former Seahawks did not slow down the team which continued to win, well helped, it is true, not one of the best defenses in the league at that time. This great series even ends with a home victory over the sworn enemy, Baltimore, to take the lead in the division.
The problem is that after this week 11, the Steelers will only win 2 games out of the last 7. Above all, the regular season ends with 4 consecutive losses (Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals). Pittsburgh's last victory was more than a month ago, on December 8. Not ideal when you want to approach the playoffs with a little confidence.
The key player: George Pickens (WR)
The history of receivers for the Pittsburgh Steelers is full of twists and turns, between great players and disruptive elements. Sometimes even both at the same time. George Pickens seems to fit perfectly into this lineage. The former Georgia player will in any case be one of the keys to this post-season for Mike Tomlin. In form, it offers a greater dimension to this attack. It allows Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson to open the playbook and have a physical target capable of winning contested balls.
On a bad day, however, he makes this attack predictable and almost one-dimensional. Worse, it can even become a distraction with moods that it rarely hides.
His last match is not intended to reassure the supporters since out of 6 balls thrown in his direction, he only caught one for 0 yards against the Bengals. To his credit, the receiver is coming back from injury and doesn't seem to be 100% physically yet. In any case, he will have to be this weekend, if he wants to turn his team over to the right side.
Why are they going to go through with it?
Because defense wins titles. If Pittsburgh wants to win, it must count on a series of 4 very high-level matches from its defense. The kind of moment that makes a squad legendary. In any case, there are the ingredients for this in Pennsylvania. First because there are superstars, starting with TJ Watt, defensive player of the year in 2021, and still very good this season (11.5 sacks and 6 forced fumbles).
Add Cameron Heyward, Alex Highsmith, Patrick Queen and Minkah Fitzpatrick and you have leaders on all lines of this defense. Collectively, this makes this squad formidable. With 20.4 points conceded per game, she is one of the strongest in the NFL.
Above all, it is poison for opposing attacks as it is capable of causing ball losses in all situations. 33 since the start of the season (1st in NFL tied with the Vikings). This season, the Pittsburgh Steelers have already managed to slow down some of the best offenses in the NFL, now they have to do so for 4 games.
Why won't they go?
Because they are too limited offensively. The middle of the season had given the Steelers some hope with the illusion of an offensive revival. It was only short-lived and Pittsburgh fell back into its old ways. It's simple, Pittsburgh is only 23rd in the number of yards gained per game. Facing elite defenses late in the season, the offense only scored 13, 17, 10 and 17 points. Not sure it's enough to win a Super Bowl.
The defense can certainly help, but it cannot do everything. Eventually, this squad can get tired and make mistakes. Unfortunately, she can't really count on the offensive squad right now to bail her out.
Injured players
For much of the season, the Steelers have fallen between the drops when it comes to injuries. Unfortunately, when the playoffs arrive, even the slightest downtime can be costly. The two most pressing situations for Mike Tomlin involve Mason McCormick and Donte Jackson. The first injured his hand against the Bengals and is not sure he will be able to hold his place. An absence that would leave a hole on Pittsburgh's offensive line.
The second was already absent against Cincinnati due to a stubborn back. In his place the young Cory Trice Jr had a very difficult afternoon against Ja'Marr Chase. All the more reason to hope for the return of the cornerback.
Prognosis
This is starting to become a habit for the 2020s: the Pittsburgh Steelers fall to the Wild Cards. The 2024 season should be no exception to the rule. After defeats in 2020, 2021 and 2023, the Yellow & Black should once again struggle at this level of the competition. This time, it will be against a division opponent: the Ravens.
Certainly Mike Tomlin's men beat Baltimore in week 11 (18-16), but they took a beating just over two weeks ago at M&T Bank Stadium (34-17). At home, Lamar Jackson and his team will not miss their chance to reach the Divisional Round.
