Minnesota Vikings: 14 wins – 3 losses, 2n/a in the NFC North, fifth in the NFC.
Not many believed in Minnesota at the start of the season. THE bookmakers did not see them winning more than 7 games, ESPN even made them a candidate for the first choice in the next draft. However, the Vikings are in the playoffs and they didn't even have to tremble to qualify.
How did they get there?
The Vikings started their season perfectly, winning their five games before the bye week. Dynamic broken by this break or simply beaten by stronger players, the purples have two consecutive defeats against Lions and Rams.
Behind, Minnesota has 9 consecutive victories and secures a place in the playoffs. Once again beaten by Detroit during the last week of the regular season, the Vikings must settle for fifth place in the conference, despite the second best record.
The key player: Sam Darnold (QB)
Which Sam Darnold are we going to get for the playoffs? The one who impressed against the Packers in week 17, or the quarterback completely out of his depth in the game of the year in week 18?
The last game of the regular season showed it, the Vikings defense is solid, but it will not be able to carry this team to the supreme title alone. Minnesota will therefore live and die according to the performance of the man who should have only been a transition quarterback.
However, the scenario was written differently. JJ McCarthy was injured before the season even started and Darnold showed throughout the season that he was capable of carrying this offense. It's up to him to prove it once again, in the matches that really matter.
Why are they going to go through with it?
You don't win 14 games by chance in the NFL. Minnesota has the misfortune of being in the same division as the conference giant and will therefore likely have to play its entire game on the road. Good news for the Vikings, their record is 7-2 away from home.
As we said, Darnold missed out against the Lions. But before that, the former Jets showed that he could be clutch. Whether against the 49ers at the start of the season or against the Seahawks and the Packers more recently, the quarterback has multiplied key passes at the end of the game throughout the season. An ability to keep your cool is essential when the playoffs arrive.
Led by Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Vikings have one of the most explosive aerial attacks in the league. This year, only the 49ers have completed more passes (66 versus 64) of more than 20 yards. Their opponents know it, leaving depth to the purples can be fatal.
On the defensive side, Brian Flores managed to transform a catastrophic squad in 2022 into one of the best in 2024. If it takes a lot of yards, this defense is fifth in number of points conceded. It is also the one that causes the most loss of balls and on a regular basis. This season, Minnesota is the only team to force at least one turnover per game.
Finally, the Vikings are led by a coach who specializes in close victories. Kevin O'Connell knows how to handle tense matches, which will be useful in the playoffs.
Why won't they go?
Despite their very good record, the Vikings did not win their division because they ran into someone stronger than them. Unable to beat the Lions in the regular season, Minnesota risks crossing their path again if they want to go all the way. Today, it's hard to imagine the Vikings reversing the balance of power.
The purples also risk lacking experience. Other than Stephon Gilmore, there is not a player on this team who has been to the Super Bowl. Sam Darnold will play his first playoff matches as a starter.
While he has experience, having been the offensive coordinator of the Super Bowl-winning Rams in 2022, Kevin O'Connell is 0-1 in the playoffs as head coach. A surprise defeat at home against the Giants that will have to be forgotten this year if he does not want to have the label of coach who does not win in the playoffs.
If the ground game is not catastrophic, it is not decisive enough either. Minnesota is having trouble scoring touchdowns on the ground and its running backs are having trouble eating up the clock. As a result, the defense often tends to weaken at the end of the match, as was the case against the Packers or the Lions.
Finally, the Vikings have a history with the playoffs that does not inspire confidence. From Gary Anderson in 1999 to Blair Walsh in 2016 and Brett Favre in 2010, Minnesota has had so many blunders that some have come to think that the franchise is cursed.
Injured players
Minnesota is one of the teams relatively spared from injuries. Certainly, the Vikings had to do without their first selection from the last draft. With a knee injury, JJ McCarthy missed all of 2024 and will not be operational until next season. Cornerback Mekhi Blackmon experienced the same misfortune and he will not return this season either.
The only real starter whose absence has an impact, Christian Darrisaw has been missing since the Rams match at the end of October and will not be available for the playoffs.
Prognosis
Fifth in the conference, Minnesota will most likely have to play all of its playoff games away. It will start with a trip to California against the Rams. A perilous trip where the Vikings have already fallen this year, in special circumstances.
If logic is respected in the other matches, Minnesota will then have to return to Michigan to challenge the Lions for the third time this season. Unable to beat them in the first two confrontations, the purples risk once again being subjected to the law of Detroit and the Vikings' journey will probably end in the divisional round.
