Miami Dolphins: 11 wins – 6 losses, 2nd in AFC East.
The Miami Dolphins are one of the most difficult teams to analyze this season. On the one hand, they qualified for the playoffs again. A performance that they have only achieved six times in the 21st century. Seeing the Floridians in knockout matches in two consecutive seasons had not happened for almost 25 years (1999 and 2000).
On the other hand, the dynamic is not good at the end of the season. Between injuries and poor performance, Mike McDaniel's men let slip a division that was reaching out to them. Will they be able to regroup to regain their form from the start of the season? That's the whole question for this Miami team.
How did they get there?
With a great start to the season in the first place. The Dolphins started the year with five wins in six games. Above all, they gave us one of the greatest offensive performances of all time. Their of week 3, Tyreek Hill's partners indeed won 70-20 against the Broncos, at the same time validating the second highest total of points during an NFL meeting.
The rest wasn't as explosive, but the Dolphins continued to win. Carried by their attack, the Floridians pranced at the top of the AFC East, even giving shivers to the Ravens at the top of the conference. Problem, a trend has stood out at the heart of this season: the Dolphins cannot beat the big teams. Bills, Eagles, Chiefs… all have had Miami. We had to wait until week 16 to see the Dolphins beat a team with a positive record for the first time. A 22-20 victory against the Cowboys at the last second.
We then think that karma is defeated and that Miami will finally be able to look the favorites in the eyes. Lost ! The last two weeks will push Mike McDaniel and his men into crisis. A defeat in Baltimore then a defeat against the Bills at home will cost the Dolphins the division and force them to play this Wild Card game away.
The key player: Jaylen Waddle (WR)
Tyreek Hill is probably the best receiver in the league. With 1,799 yards and 13 TDs, he had an exceptional season. But as explosive as he can be, number 10 cannot make his team win all the time. As we have seen in recent weeks, Tua Tagovailoa's life becomes more complicated when the former Chief is the only real high-level threat in the aerial game.
On the other hand, when Jaylen Waddle is there, this attack displays an even higher level. It must be said that the young receiver managed to pass 1,000 yards in just 14 games. With 4 TD catches, he is this team's second leading scorer through the air. In addition to his qualities, Jaylen Waddle brings another threat which allows Tyreek Hill to be freed. Defenses must now focus on two very talented players and it becomes almost mission impossible.
The return of the former Alabama player will therefore be crucial in the playoffs. Hit in the ankle, he missed the last two games of the regular season (two defeats). He is currently uncertain for the start of the post-season, but his presence seems crucial for the Dolphins.
Why are they going to go through with it?
The offense is of a quality rarely matched in the NFL. Beyond the 70 points scored against the Broncos, this squad continued to pose problems for opposing defenses. With 401.3 yards gained per game, Miami was the team that gained the most yards in the NFL. All associated with 29.2 points scored per game (2nd in the league). Even if the defenses tighten up in the playoffs, the Dolphins risk causing problems for many teams.
The architect of this attack, Mike McDaniel is considered by many to be an offensive genius. Whether in the air or on the ground, he regularly finds patterns that put opposing defenses in difficulty. On defense, Miami is not to be outdone. This season, they have allowed just 318.3 yards per game (10th in the league). It is particularly complicated to put in place a solid ground game against the Dolphins (97.1 yards conceded per game on the ground (7th).
Why won't they go?
The last few weeks have not been in their favor. And while injuries are a big problem in Florida right now (see below), that's not the only reason that could spell doom for the Dolphins' title hopes. As we have said, Miami cannot develop its game against big teams. Tua Tagovailoa's partners finished the season with 1 win for 5 losses against teams with a positive record.
The Bills (twice), the Ravens and the Chiefs beat them. Teams they could find on their potential road to the Super Bowl. Starting with Kansas City this weekend. The Dolphins crack in big meetings. This is bad, they are coming quickly.
Injured players
This is the main concern in Miami in recent weeks: injuries are piling up at the worst times. On defense first, the Dolphins lost Bradley Chubb for the remainder of the season. The absence of the franchise's best pass-rusher this season comes in addition to those of Jaelan Phillips, Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel. In total, 25 sacks will be absent this weekend.
On the back lines, the Miami Dolphins are not spared either with the injury to Xavien Howard for this trip to Kansas City. On the other side of the ball, the question on everyone's mind is whether Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert can hold their place. They are for now “questionable”. Their presence would change a lot for Tua Tagovailoa who will not be able to count on Isaiah Wynn and Connor Williams to protect him.
Prognosis
Football is above all a sport of momentum and unfortunately, the momentum is really not good. Like last year, it would not be surprising if the Miami Dolphins came out in the first game of these playoffs. By undertaking a perilous trip to the ArrowHead, in conditions that promise to be very complicated, the Floridians have put themselves in great difficulty.
In any case, they do not seem experienced enough to understand these great moments.
Defeat in Wild Cards Round.
