Dallas Cowboys: 12 wins – 5 losses, NFC East champions, second in NFC
28 years old. It's been nearly three decades since the Dallas Cowboys last reached the Super Bowl. Suffice to say an eternity for the supporters of a franchise which has great ambitions every year. And if Dallas has just won its 25th division title, making it the most successful franchise in the number of divisions won in the history of the NFL, only the final trophy will be able to satisfy its fans.
It must be said that Texas players are equipped to go all the way this season. You still have to not break down in the playoffs. In any case, it is during this post-season that Mike McCarthy, Dak Prescott and this entire Cowboys lineup will be judged.
How did they get there?
The first answer to this question is quite simple: by being unplayable at home. This season, the Cowboys are undefeated at AT&T Stadium. They won their 8 games with more than 37 points scored on average. Only the Lions gave them a hard time in week 17, keeping them below 30 points for the first time (20-19). The others (Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants, Commanders, Seahawks and Eagles) have all been subjected to Dallas law.
Thanks to this superiority at home, Dallas was able to afford a small mattress this season. A good thing, because away games were more complicated for Mike McCarthy's men. Faced with franchises considered weaker (Giants, Chargers, Panthers and Commanders), they were able to get the job done. Faced with stronger teams, on the other hand (49ers, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins), they cracked.
Dallas, however, managed to be more consistent than Philadelphia to win the NFC East. The franchise finished with a record of 12 wins and only 5 losses for the 3rd consecutive time under the orders of Mike McCarthy.
The key player: CeeDee Lamb (WR)
Since arriving in the league in 2020, CeeDee Lamb has only progressed. Just look at his statistics with first 935 yards gained and 5 TDs, then 1102 yards and 6 TDs in 2021 and 1359 yards and 9 TDs in 2022. And for his fourth season, he pushed back again his limits by beating all his personal records. His stats are stratospheric with 135 receptions (1st in NFL) for 1749 yards (2nd), 12 TDs (3rd).
On his momentum, he will therefore be crucial during these playoffs. Dak Prescott will need his number 1 receiver to move this team forward. For the moment, CeeDee Lamb has never really managed to explode in the playoffs with 206 yards and 1 TD in 3 post-season games, but this year seems to be the good one for the former Oklahoman. In any case, to go far Dallas will need all its major players, but if the receiver is on fire, it will be difficult to stop this attack.
Why are they going to go through with it?
In the NFL, Dallas is the team that scores the most points: 29.9 per meeting. Symbol of a formation which thrives perfectly offensively. And yet, there were a lot of questions about this sector at the start of the season. Kellen Moore, the offensive coordinator, left for Los Angeles, leaving Mike McCarthy to handle the play-calling. A situation which could seem delicate, especially given the statements of the head coach at the start of the season. It is clear, however, that the former leader of the Packers has found the right formula.
In this offensive scheme, as we have said, CeeDee Lamb is very efficient, but Dak Prescott is also offering one of the best seasons of his career. The pitcher posts some staggering stats that make him one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season (4516 yards, 36 TDs and 9 INTs). We even talked about him for the MVP title for a few weeks. And even if he ultimately seems quite far from winning this trophy, he approaches the playoffs with a lot of confidence.
Overall, this attack loses very few balls (16, 2nd in NFL) which will be an important quality when the final matches arrive. On the other side of the ball, the defense is no slouch. If everything is not perfect (see below), the squad remains one of the strongest in the league. The Cowboys only concede 299.7 yards per game (5th in NFL). Finally, the main reason for their potential success could be home field advantage. They have not lost at home since September 2022 and could host two (or even three) games during these playoffs. The situation is ideal for them.
Why won't they go?
In recent seasons, the Cowboys have developed the unfortunate habit of performing well in the regular season before disappointing in the playoffs. The next few weeks could prove it again. In terms of play, the main weakness is in the ground defense. This squad, good in the air, has difficulty containing opposing runners. She concedes an average of 112.4 yards per game in this area (16th in the league).
The ground attack will also have to be better if they want to hope for anything. For now, Tony Pollard and his teammates lead a very average ground squad (112.9 rushing yards on average, 14th in NFL) and could lock Dallas into a lack of offensive diversity. Finally, the question of managing the end of matches will necessarily be crucial. Mike McCarthy, often criticized in this area, will be heavily scrutinized. The coach sometimes makes questionable decisions in these situations and it could cost the Cowboys dearly.
Injured players
This season, the Dallas Cowboys have fallen between the drops when it comes to injuries. Like all NFL franchises, the Cowboys still have some absences to deplore. The most important are in defense, notably the serious injury to Trevon Diggs. The cornerback, author of 18 interceptions since arriving in the league in 2020, was injured in training at the end of September. In his absence, Dan Quinn had to revise his plans in the defensive back field.
Fortunately, the young DaRon Bland and the experienced Stephon Gilmore were able to take over. Still on this side of the ball, one of the leaders of this squad, Leighton Vander Esch, injured in the neck, will not participate in the playoffs either. The linebacker could also see his career ended.
Prognosis
As we have said, AT&T is an impregnable fortress this season. The Dallas Cowboys are uncompromising at home. Good news since the first matches of these playoffs should take place in Texas. To start, we will have to beat the Packers at home. Green Bay can be a dangerous team, but Dallas has more certainty to get by. If Dak Prescott's partners were to win next weekend, they would automatically receive the match of Divisional Round.
The options are numerous, but they could face teams like the Lions, the Rams or even the Eagles. As many teams as they have already beaten at home this season. Finally, the logic of the ranking would dictate that the conference final be played against the 49ers. This match will be away and on paper seems more complicated for the Dallas Cowboys.
Defeat in Conference Final.
