San Francisco 49ers: 13 wins – 4 losses, NFC West champions, second in NFC
At the end of a 2022 season where San Francisco failed in the NFC final, outside observers thought the Californians were out of breath and left for a year of transition. Nay! Symbolized by a dominant defense, an offense that has picked up momentum over the season, and – it must be said – the collapse of its main rivals, the 49ers have gone from being scratchy outsiders, to finally emerging as one of the ogres of NFC at the start of the play-offs.
Yet there are many uncertainties and paradoxes for the Bay franchise. Starting with the ambitions: on paper, the team may be the most complete in the league, but how far can a team go with a rookie quarterback?
How did they get there?
The start of the season was laborious for the Californians. An entry loss to the Bears, the loss of starting quarterback Trey Lance for the season in the second week, cascading injuries, and see-saw results: victories against the rivals Rams and Seahawks, but defeats against the very affordable Broncos and Falcons. Above all, a slap inflicted by the Chiefs (44-23) in week 7, revealing the gap between the level of the team and the leaders of the league.
At 3 wins for 4 losses at almost mid-season, San Francisco is not in the game. However, Kyle Shanahan’s men did not give up until they finally saw the planets align. Between a Jimmy G. in full possession of his means and a defense that looks like an iron wall, the 49ers are snatching victories one after the other.
In week 13, chaos: Garoppolo is injured in turn for the rest of the regular season. Backfire? It was without counting on the emergence of the anonymous rookie Brock Purdy, decked out with the nickname of Mister Irrelevant (Mister Useless, nickname given to the player drafted in the last position of the draft). Not afraid of the magnitude of the task, Purdy took up the torch and led his people to an idyllic end to the season: 10 consecutive victories, current series: no one does better in the league.
The key player: Christian McCaffrey (RB)
Often, Kyle Shanahan has been flattered for his ability to get honest production from unknown running backs (Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr). So what’s the point of putting precious resources into a cador? CMC has given a clear answer to this question.
Acquired from the Panthers against four draft rounds mid-season, McCaffrey is one of the turning points of the San Francisco season. In 11 games, the former Stanford player (university in the suburbs of… San Francisco) amassed 1210 yards and scored 10 TDs, even having the luxury of throwing a touchdown pass during his first tenure.
So dangerous in the backfield, the contribution of CMC has especially reflected on his teammates. Forcing defenses to play closer to the face-off line with his mere presence, CMC opened spaces in the middle zones for the rest of the 49ers’ five-star offensive cast, the ” YAC Brothers (the “Siblings of yards after reception”): Brandon Aiyuk (1038 yards, 8 TD), George Kittle (765 yards, 11 TD) and Deebo Samuel (864 yards, 5 TD).
Why are they going to go all the way?
On paper, the San Francisco team has no real weak point. The offense rolls over the opposing defenses (7 of the last 10 games with 30 points scored or more), and the defense padlocks the opposing attacks. As proof, San Francisco is the league leader unlike turnovers: 30 balls recovered, 17 lost, or +13, ahead of the Cowboys (+10) and the Eagles (+8).
On all lines, San Francisco has some of the best players in their position. If the offensive playmakers have already been mentioned, on the line Trent Williams (LT) is perhaps the best tackle in the league.
On the other side of the ball, no doubts for Nick Bosa (DE): with 18.5 sacks, Smaller Bear (nickname in reference to his brother Joey “Big Bear” Bosa) is the best quarterback fighter in the league and should even win the title of defender of the year. Fred Warner is still one of the best linebackers in the league, while Talanoa Hufanga (S) has just been selected for his first Pro Bowl.
On the competition side, everything leads to optimism for San Francisco. The NFC suffers from a lack of big competitors. Exit the Packers of the dreaded Aaron Rodgers, the Rams of the genius McVay, while the Buccaneers of the legend Brady are in bad shape. Only the Eagles and the Vikings seem to be able to get on the road to San Francisco, so why not dream of reaching the supreme match? With this team, all dreams are allowed.
Why won’t they go?
It’s simple: a rookie quarterback has never won the Super Bowl. Worse: never has a rookie quarterback gone to the Super Bowl, rookies Ben Roethlisberger (2004), Joe Flacco (2008) or Mark Sanchez (2009) failing in the conference final.
Brock Purdy must therefore write history, nothing less. And with just six games on the clock, to say the young Iowa State rookie still has a lot to learn is an understatement.
On the ground, faults in defense also appeared at the end of the season. Twice, San Francisco took a touchdown on the first pass of the game (75 yards for Trent Sherfield of Miami in week 13, 77 yards for AJ Green of Arizona in week 18). The kind of crippling mental errors against leaders in the playoffs.
The Californians were also dragged into overtime by the Raiders (week 17) of a Jarrett Stidham who was playing the first game of his pro career, throwing for 365 yards.
More specifically, when the pass rush is checked, the back lines are regularly defaulted. If Charvarius Ward is a good cornerback, the other players in the back lines (Deommodore Lenoir, Talanoa Hufanga, Tashaun Gipson) are more than perfectible on aerial coverage.
Injured players
Historically little spared by injuries, the 49ers nevertheless present themselves at almost full strength in the light of these play-offs. We almost forget that San Francisco is still playing with its third quarterback, Trey Lance being out for the season, and Jimmy Garoppolo being close to a return.
The significant losses, it is on the side of the cornerbacks that they are felt: Jason Verrett (a regular in the infirmary) but especially Emmanuel Moseley will not return to the field.
Finally, San Francisco’s offensive armada consists of almost only fragile players who are likely to be injured at any time during this play-off campaign: Elijah Mitchell (12 games missed this season), Deebo Samuel (4 games missed), George Kittle (no full season since 2018), or Christian McCaffrey (10 games played cumulatively in 2020 and 2021), no all-risk insurance on that side.
Prognosis
Logically, the Niners should pass the first round, played against the Seahawks they have easily mastered in their two confrontations this season.
Then the Vikings could stand in their way, and it could get tougher against an MVP-sized Justin Jefferson. Vikings often placed but never winners, blessed with a baraka that Didier Deschamps would not deny.
Victory in Wild Cards, defeat in Divisional Round.
