The 2023 season has just ended, and on March 13, the 2023 campaign will open its doors. DNA of Sports therefore takes this opportunity to offer you an overview of the different franchises during the offseason. Which players to keep and cut? Which free agent to extend? Which recruits to observe? Here are some ideas, franchise by franchise. In the spotlight today, the Buffalo Bills. You will find the files for each team on this page.
The seasons follow one another and are similar for the Buffalo Bills. For the third time in four years, the residents of Orchard Park were defeated in the play-offs by the unplayable Chiefs when January arrived. However, this 2023 season was different. Buffalo scared itself in the first part of the season, then, with its back to the wall, became a steamroller which snatched first place in the division in the last week.
So, what can we do to finally get past the Kansas City pitfall?
The captains
- Josh Allen (QB)
- Taron Johnson (BC)
- Stefon Diggs (WR)
Josh Allen is the cream of the crop of quarterbacks. Leadership, throwing power, precision, mobility, the 27-year-old has the full range of the modern quarterback. We should still not hide the fact that he tended to be careless with the ball in 2023 (22 turnovers, the second highest total in the league behind Sam Howell of the Commanders). However, it is a flaw to be put into perspective when, at the same time, we are talking about a player who has scored more than 40 touchdowns over the last four seasons (29 in the air and 15 on the ground in 2023). No one does that much in the league, it's worth a little interception every now and then.
If Allen can flourish, it is also because he has a real number 1 receiver in the person of Stefon Diggs. At 30 years old, the ex-Viking is on the downward slope with his worst statistical season since his arrival in Buffalo. But he managed to have a sixth consecutive season with more than 1000 yards (1183 precisely, for 8 touchdowns): the definition of consistency.
Finally, Buffalo is also a defense with talent on all lines and bench depth almost unmatched in the NFL. Among these very good players, cornerback Taron Johnson has sparkled this season in the slot to the point of being named to the All-Pro second team (behind Trent McDuffie of the Chiefs). Despite his specialization, Johnson became so indispensable that his coaches concocted schemes allowing him to be left on the field. As a result, he was the 4th most used Buffalo Bills defender of the season (955 snaps) and the most prolific cornerback tackle in the league (72 tackles).
The undesirables
- Von Miller (DE)
- Nyheim Hines (RB)
- Deonte Harty (WR)
Flagship signing of a franchise with high ambitions, two years ago, Buffalo is now dragging Von Miller's insane contract like a ball and chain. Victim of a ruptured cruciate ligament and meniscus in November 2022, the seven-time All-Pro has never returned to a level at the level of his pharaonic remuneration. Now a replacement and soon to be 35 years old, the ex-Bronco has compiled five unfortunate tackles in 14 games (which equates to $3.4 million paid per tackle!) this season.
So, from a sporting point of view, cutting Von Miller would make perfect sense, but from an accounting point of view much less so. Indeed, if the Bills part with Von Miller this spring, $32.5 million in dead money awaits the franchise. Worse, the structure of Miller's contract means that firing him would even reduce the team's salary cap by 8.7 million instead of increasing it!
A headache in perspective, therefore, for Buffalo. Cynically, financial salvation could come from uncertainty about the ongoing investigation against the pass rusher for domestic violence. If he were suspended by the league, all of the normally guaranteed salaries in the contract would no longer be.
Overall, it is the Bills' salary situation as a whole that is sclerotic, with salary room for maneuver (difference between the maximum authorized salary and the salaries currently planned) of -55 million dollars, the second worst total in the league.
To clean things up a little, some players could be shown the exit door. This is the case, for example, of Nyheim Hines. Author of a blank season due to a Jet Ski accident, the ex-Colts was able to observe from the stands the emergence of James Cook as number one runner (1,122 yards, first runner for the Buffalo Bills above 1000 yards since LeSean McCoy in 2017). Cutting Hines would free up $4.7 million in payroll.
In the same philosophy, receiver Deonte Harty only played 13% of his team's offensive actions (for 150 yards and 1 touchdown). He was just the fifth receiver on the team behind Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield. Recruited last year as a free agent from the Saints, Harty is mainly used on punt returns (including a magnificent 96-yard return this season). Can the Bills really spend 5.7 million (14th highest salary on the team in 2024) on a returner? Cutting it would save 4 million.
The summer man
Dalton Kincaid (TE)
Simple coincidence or avenue to explore: the three tight ends with the most All-Pro votes last season (George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce) made at least one conference final. Too often, Josh Allen gave the impression of carrying the Buffalo attack like Atlas carrying the vault of heaven. The relative weakness of the Buffalo Bills' target panel certainly has something to do with it.
Stefon Diggs remains the main aerial threat, but who is behind it? The irregular Gabriel Davis is a free agent (Buffalo probably won't be able to re-sign him anyway) while Khalil Shakir may not have the makings of a true number one encore. The most likely solution is Dalton Kincaid.
Drafted in the first round last year, Kincaid delivered a good first season (673 yards, 10th total among tight ends), perhaps a little overshadowed by Sam LaPorta's stellar season in Michigan. He has already supplanted Dawson Knox as understudy. The 2024 season must be one of explosion because Josh Allen must be able to count on a credible threat other than Diggs if Buffalo wishes to go further in the play-offs.
The main free agents
- Micah Hyde (S)
- Gabe Davis (WR)
- Leonard Floyd (DE)
- Dane Jackson (CB)
- AJ Epenesa (DE)
Others : Tyrel Dodson (LB), Taylor Rapp (S), Jordan Philips (DT), Trent Sherfield (WR), Latavius Murray (RB), Shaq Lawson (DE), DaQuan Jones (DT), Quintin Morris (TE), Linval Joseph (DT), Poona Ford (DT), Cameron Lewis (CB), David Edwards (G), Ty Johnson (RB), Damien Harris (RB), Kyle Allen (QB), Tyler Matakevich (LB)
Mass exodus in Buffalo! The Bills' terrible defensive line, the deepest in the league, is no more. The Buffalo Bills could lose 5 of their 6 defensive tackles (only Ed Oliver is still under contract) and half of their pass rushers (including Leonard Floyd and AJ Epenesa). Not content with having a big hole on the line, General Manager Brandon Beane could also deal with a new rear guard since two safeties Hyde and Rapp are also free agents.
On offense, the only notable losses are receivers Gabriel Davis and Trent Sherfield. The good news is that the offensive line is unlikely to move. The good squad of 2023 should therefore logically be renewed in 2024.
The top 5 needs
- Recipient
- Defensive Tackle
- Safety
- Cornerback
- Defensive End
Ultra-complete so far, the defense is the huge project of the offseason. All positions could be strengthened with the exception of the linebacker pair Matt Milano – Terrel Bernard. The result of a delicate financial situation combined with numerous simultaneous contract endings.
Preparing for post-Diggs with a number one receiver is an absolute necessity for a team that already has its franchise quarterback. Even more so when Stefon Diggs has frequent episodes of acute diva-itis leaving doubt about his short, medium or long term future with the franchise.
Target
Xavier McKinney (S, Giants)
In the financial situation of the Buffalo Bills, free agent signings will have to be reasoned. Since we have to completely rebuild the defense, we might as well maximize the value of the investment by signing a very good player at a low price. In this little game, it is often the safeties who are the losers. The position is so devalued in the NFL that only tight ends, running backs and specialists (K, P, LS) are paid less on average.
With the many big-name safeties available (Eddie Jackson, Jordan Whitehead, Tashaun Gipson), the price to land McKinney could be pulled down. However, Xavier McKinney was a great architect of a superb New York defense in 2022 (which certainly foundered in 2023 in the Martindale system). In addition, it has a quality that can attract Buffalo: its durability. In 2022, he played 100% of his team's defensive snaps!
New blood
Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
From the height of his 91 meter, receiver Troy Franklin would offer a different profile to Josh Allen. The player possesses above-average speed that would stretch the field and maximize Josh Allen's cannon arm.
The receiver is nevertheless not just an “all-right” and can cleanly run the routes that are required of him. He also has a good ability to create space by losing his direct defender.
