Equipped with script for the 2023 NFL season to which Touchdownactu.com obviously has access, here is a preview of the 8 surprises of the 2023 NFL season that no one will have seen coming. At least officially.
1. The Jets will win the AFC East
For what ?
Because Aaron Rodgers decided to put all the energy of his bad temper into a quest to prove to his ex from Wisconsin that he should have been listened to all these years. And then, with a great defense, the Jets still invested to surround the dean of the league (Dalvin Cook, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, etc.). He may be missing an offensive line, but Tom Brady jurisprudence dictates that after age 38, being sacked usually results in a penalty Roughing the pass. Practical for moving the chains!
Finally, it’s good in terms of competition since the Bills have reached their glass ceiling, the Patriots are finitos (point #4), and the Dolphins live with a sword of Damocles over the head of Tua Tagovailoa, whose the next concussion could mean a premature end to his career.
Probability of achievement: 30% because it’s the Jets (60% for any other team). That percentage could go up if the Jets can bring Clay Matthews and Jordy Nelson out of retirement.
2. Derrick Henry will run for less than 1,000 yards
For what ?
Because King Henry begins to feel the weight of the years weighing on him. In 2022, his 96 yards per game were his worst average since 2018, a year where he barely passed this 1000 yard mark (1059 yards). Advanced statistics show that Derrick Henry stagnates, and now only performs at an average level. If he produces, it is mainly because he has a lot of balls (22 carries per match on average!).
Derrick Henry seems to have never fully recovered from his broken foot that occurred in 2021. Only one game over 150 yards last season (against the Texans, that doesn’t count!) compared to two during his half-season in 2021 or four in 2020.
Finally, the Titans also drafted a new running back – Tyjae Spears – in the third round of the draft. The law of puns forces one to think that Spears will prevent Henry from reaching 1000 yards. One more time“.
Probability of achievement: 10%, because the rest of the Titans offense consists of pre-retired DeAndre Hopkins (in Nashville, we didn’t learn from the Julio Jones mistake), Treylon Burks (the one who was taken with the choice received from the Eagles for AJ Brown: hat) and Ryan Tannehill.
3. The Seahawks will take back the reins of the NFC West
For what ?
Because it’s obvious. Who else could win this division?
- The Cardinals are already looking at the best NCAA players for their future first draft pick (see point #7)
- The Rams play the remake ofExpendableswith a battered Matt Stafford (35 years old) and Aaron Donald (32 years old) surrounded by 10 XFL players in defense.
- The 49ers have only played with the same starting quarterback in a season once in the last 8 seasons. San Francisco is only a cubit* away from seeing Brock Purdy being replaced by Sam Darnold (the man who saw ghosts) or Brandon Allen (who is closer to Brandon Weeden than to Josh Allen).
In addition to the questionable competition, Seattle has intelligently strengthened itself during the offseason, and can count on a Pete Carroll who has found the fountain of youth. Almost 72 springs (almost as many as rivals Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay combined!), but the former USC coach remains among the very best in the NFL.
*Here we are talking about the cubit, a unit of length surprisingly ignored by a league that calculates in feet, inches and yards. Any bad puns relating to the condition of Brock Purdy’s elbow are completely coincidental. As everyone knows, a cubit is equivalent to 80 fingers, 6 palms, or 1.5 feet.
Probability of achievement: 50%. We’re still talking about Geno Smith.
4. This will be Bill Belichick’s final season in New England
For what ?
Because at 71 years old, good old Bilou could have already retired with a full pension (66 years old in the USA) 5 years ago.
Also, because it is clear that unlike his two contemporaries Pete Carroll (71 years old) and Andy Reid (65 years old), BB is starting to show signs of senility. Any coach would have been thrown out for management equivalent to that of the Patriots in 2022:
- The failed return of Matt Patricia, former defensive coordinator of the franchise, in a nebulous position of “senior football advisor” in addition to a role of offensive line coach (he had been an assistant offensive line coach… almost 20 years later early)
- The failed arrival of Joe Judge, former special teams coordinator of the franchise, in another nebulous position of “offensive assistant” in addition to a role of quarterback coach (a position he never approached near or far before!)
- A call of plays scattered between the two, with occasional interventions from Belichick himself to call certain plays. In short, a beautiful mess.
Fortunately, for 2023, Belichick has learned from his mistakes. There will only be one offensive coordinator, and he wasn’t on the team last year! Phew, fresh blood! Well, not really, since it’s Bill O’Brien (former coordinator of the franchise in 2011) who arrives…
In sport, and even more so in North America, there is no room for feelings. A new poor performance from the Patriots and owner Robert Kraft will have no choice but to restart a new cycle by making a clean slate of the past. And the trend in the AFC East is towards youthfulness (49 years for Sean McDermott (Bills), 44 years for Robert Saleh (Jets), 40 years for Mike McDaniel (Dolphins)).
Probability of achievement: 71%. And it increases every year.
5. Detroit will finally win a playoff game
For what ?
The last time it was a defeat inflicted on the Cowboys (38-6). Yes, the Lions once tasted victory in the play-offs, it’s not a legend.
Seven seasons later, a certain Frank Reich played two games there as the starting quarterback. He is now the fourth oldest head coach in the league. And for good reason, this last victory for the Lions dates from the 1991 season.
32 years later, Detroit has the cards in hand to finally win in the play-offs: a slightly unpredictable coach, a rather well-constructed group, a fairly open division, and above all a weak NFC conference.
Probability of achievement: 34%. Like the number of seasons that passed between Detroit’s last playoff victory (1991) and the previous one (1957!).
6. Washington will change its name (again)
For what ?
Some people change their hairstyle after a romantic breakup. In the capital, it seems that the only way to turn the page is to change your name.
In 2020, the Washington Redskins became the Washington Football Team, a name more reminiscent of video games that failed to obtain an official league license than a true NFL franchise.
So, in 2022, owner Dan Snyder’s Washington Football Team became the Washington Commanders.
In 2023, Dan Snyder is no longer there, Josh Harris is the new boss, and the franchise is experiencing a new boom in popularity. It is therefore the right moment for Harris to make his mark and definitively close the pitiful Snyder chapter.
That’s good, a petition to change the name has already received more than 130,000 signatures. The proposed new name? Washington Redskins. Is it in old (red) pots that we make the best jams?
Probability of achievement: 77%. Like Terry McLaurin’s number of receptions in 2021. And in 2022.
7. The Cardinals will be the first team in history to go 0-17
For what ?
What’s the plan in Arizona? Nobody knows. Not even them obviously.
After losing the few good players on the roster during the offseason (DeAndre Hopkins, JJ Watt), Monti Ossenfort and Rich Gannon decided to add a little spice by continuing to trash their starters during the preseason: Isaiah Simmons sent to the Giants, Josh Jones to the Texans.
Fortunately, the Cards can count on an Elite quarterback – or at least that’s what his contract suggests -. Except that Kyler Murray still remains evasive about his return and that he will already miss the start of the season.
So what’s left in this team? Budda Baker, or rather Boude Baker for the safety who expressed his intentions to leave.
So against the well-coached teams of the NFC West, and more generally against the 31 other teams in the league who try not to do anything, Arizona has a unique chance to leave its mark in history by being the first team with 17 losses in a season.
Probability of achievement: 69.8%. Like the average pass completion percentage of teams against the Cards in 2022. The highest in the league, obviously.
8. The winner of the NFC South will have a negative record
For what ?
Baker Mayfield, Desmond Ridder, Bryce Young, Derek Carr. No, these are not the quarterbacks remaining in the nineteenth round of your fantasy, but the starting pitchers from the NFC South. And even if the schedule seems favorable (the NFC South meets the NFC North and the AFC South this season), these four teams are more or less rebuilding.
With three coaches in the hot seat (the fourth, Frank Reich, having barely arrived at Carolina), it is also the division most likely to participate in the race for the first draft pick. The defeat party just to grab the talented Caleb Williams (QB, USC), the bookmakers’ favorite next April?
The Buccs painfully finished division champions with a record of 8 wins for 9 losses in 2022. With one less Tom Brady in the division, which team can consider a positive record?
Probability of achievement: 76%. Like the likelihood that Caleb Williams will be the top pick in the draft according to Vegas.
