As in 2023, the French will be more interested in the “lottery” since after Victor Wembanyama, it is Alexandre Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher who are the favorites to be chosen first during the 2024 Draft. There is more suspense than last season for this first place, but the French could place three players in the Top 10 with also Tidjane Salaun.
But before that, there is the draw carried out by the NBA, known as the “lottery”, or “lottery” in French. On paper, two franchises have the best chance of winning this “lottery” and securing the number 1 spot: the Wizards and the Pistons.
WHERE AND WHEN ?
The “lottery” takes place in a small room in Chicago, without cameras, but with an NBA executive, a journalist and a bailiff, and this May 12, the draw begins at 9:00 p.m. French time, just before Game 4 between the Pacers and the Knicks. It can be followed live on BeIN Sports.
WHO PARTICIPATES IN THE LOTTERY?
In theory, the “lottery” concerns franchises not qualified for the playoffs, i.e. the 14 teams with the worst records. They are assigned a spot, and therefore chances of winning the first pick, based on their regular season record. The worse a team was in the regular season, the more likely it was to pick first.
The arrival of the “play-in” has changed the theory a little since the NBA must wait for the eliminations of the play-offs to determine the “lottery teams”. The Bulls, Pelicans, Warriors and Hawks are therefore “lottery teams” this year.
HOW WAS THE LOTTERY BORN?
WHAT ARE THE REGULATIONS?
Since 2019, the NBA has modified two essential elements, which aim to avoid “tanking” in the regular season.
– In theory, the three worst records of the season now have a 14% chance of winning first place on the evening of the “lottery”. Until 2018, the worst record had a 25%, or one in four, chance of landing the first pick. The two other worst records then respectively had a 19.9% and 15.6% chance of regaining this first place. A system in place since 2005 and which “tanking” had undermined for several seasons. With this reform, the worst team only has one chance in seven of winning the “lottery”, compared to one chance in four previously.
– Until 2018, only the first three choices were determined by the “lottery”, and the worst record of the regular season was therefore guaranteed to select in the Top 4. With this reform, we move to four choices designated by the draw by lot, and that means at the same time that worst regular season record might only have 5th pick. It's Detroit this year.
– This year, only two franchises have a 14% chance to select first, as there was a tie between the Hornets and Blazers for 3rd worst record.
HOW DOES THE DRAW TAKE PLACE?
The NBA uses 14 ping pong balls, numbered 1 to 14, and places them in a machine that resembles the Lotto machine. In total, there are 1,001 possible combinations (without taking into account the order in which the balls come out: in short, the combination 1-2-3-4 is the same as the combination 4-3-2-1). These combinations are assigned to teams based on the desired probability. The Wizards and Pistons therefore receive 140, compared to 7 for the Warriors.
A first draw therefore makes it possible to determine the first choice. The balls are mixed for twenty seconds, then each ball is vacuumed at ten second intervals. Once the name of the first team is known, we put the balls back in the machine and start again to determine the second, third and fourth choices. If the combination of a team already drawn falls, the draw starts again.
Only the first four choices are drawn. From 5th to 14th place, the “lottery” then takes the ranking into account.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF EACH FRANCHISE OF CHOOSING FIRST?
Here are the probabilities (in %) for each team.
| Franchise | 1st choice | Top 3 |
| Pistons | 14% | 40.1% |
| Wizards | 14% | 40.1% |
| Hornets | 13.3% | 38.6% |
| Blazers | 12.5% | 36.6% |
| Spurs | 10.5% | 31.6% |
| Raptors* | 9% | 27.6% |
| Grizzlies | 7.5% | 23.4% |
| Utah Jazz** | 6% | 19% |
| Rockets*** | 4.5% | 14.5% |
| Hawks | 3% | 9.9% |
| Bulls | 2% | 6.6% |
| Rockets**** | 1.3% | 4.3% |
| Kings | 1% | 3% |
| Warriors***** | 0.5% | 1.7% |
*Top 6 protected pick. It will be up to the Spurs if the Raptors don't select in the Top 6
** Protected pick Top 10. It will belong to the Thunder if the Jazz do not select in the Top 10
*** Choice ceded by the Nets
**** Protected Top 4 pick. It will belong to the Thunder if the Rockets do not select in the Top 4
***** Protected Top 4 pick. It will be up to the Blazers if the Warriors don't select in the Top 4
WHO ARE THE FRANCHISE REPRESENTATIVES?
Here is the complete list of personalities present, including Bilal Coulibaly.
Atlanta Hawks: Landry Fields (GM)
Charlotte Hornets: Brandon Miller
Chicago Bulls : Julian Phillips
Detroit Pistons: Ausar Thompson
Golden State Warriors: Brandin Podziemski
Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (coach)
Memphis Grizzlies: Tayshaun Prince (vice president)
Portland Trail Blazers: Scoot Henderson
Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray
San Antonio Spurs: Brian Wright (GM)
Toronto Raptors: Scottie Barnes
Utah Jazz: Thurl Bailey (former player)
Washington Wizards: Bilal Coulibaly
