It had been a long time since the lottery had generated so much enthusiasm! Perhaps even more than the Draft itself since, as in 2003 with LeBron James or in 2019 with Zion Williamson, we already know who will be chosen number 1 in the Draft. It will be Victor Wembanyama, the new phenomenon of world basketball, and the Frenchman already knows that there is no suspense since ten days ago, he posted this message on social networks: “10 days before knowing my future team. It’s really crazy.”
On paper, three franchises have the best chance of winning this “lottery” and therefore of having the privilege of selecting Wembanyama as number 1: the Rockets, the Spurs and the Pistons.
WHERE AND WHEN ?
The “lottery” takes place in a small room in Chicago, without cameras, but with an NBA manager, a journalist and an usher, and on May 16, the draw begins at 2:00 a.m. French time, just before the first match of the conference final between the Nuggets and the Lakers. It is to be followed live on BeIN Sports. A privileged few will be able to follow the event in the company of Victor Wembanyama on the Champs Elysées.
WHO IS PARTICIPATING IN THE LOTTERY?
In theory, the “lottery” concerns the franchises not qualified in the playoffs, that is to say the 14 teams with the worst records. They are assigned a berth, and therefore odds of winning the top pick, based on their regular-season record. The worse a team has been in the regular season, the more likely it is to pick first.
The arrival of the “play-in” has somewhat upset the theory since the NBA must wait for the eliminations of the play-offs to determine the “lottery teams”. The Bulls, Thunder, Raptors and Pelicans are therefore “lottery teams” this year.
WHAT ARE THE RULES?
Since 2019, the NBA has changed two essential elements, which aim to avoid “tanking” in the regular season.
– The three worst records of the season now have a 14% chance of winning first place on the evening of the “lottery”. Until 2018, the worst record had a 25%, or one in four, chance of landing the top pick. The two other worst results then had a 19.9% and 15.6% chance respectively of recovering this first place. A system in place since 2005 and that “tanking” had undermined for several seasons. With this reform, the worst team only has a one in seven chance of winning the lottery, against a one in four chance previously.
– Until 2018, only the first three choices were determined by the “lottery”, and the worst record of the regular season was therefore guaranteed to select in the Top 4. With this reform, we will go to four choices designated by the draw by lot, and this means at the same time that worst regular season record may only have 5th pick. It’s Detroit this year.
HOW DOES THE DRAW WORK?
The NBA uses 14 ping pong balls, numbered 1 through 14, and places them in a machine that looks like the Lotto. In total, there are 1,001 possible combinations (without taking into account the order in which the balls come out: in other words, the 1-2-3-4 combination is the same as the 4-3-2-1 combination). These combinations are assigned to teams based on the desired probability. The Rockets, Pistons and Spurs therefore receive 140, compared to 5 for the Pelicans.
A first draw therefore makes it possible to determine the first choice. The balls are shuffled for twenty seconds, then each ball is sucked in at ten second intervals. The name of the first known team, we put the balls back in the machine and we start again to determine the second, third and fourth choice. If the combination of a team already drawn falls, the draw starts again.
Only the first four choices are drawn. From 5th to 14th place, the “lottery” then takes into account the ranking.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF EACH FRANCHISE OF CHOOSING FIRST?
Here are the probabilities (in %) for each team.
| Crew | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 47.9 | ||||||||||
| 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 27.8 | 20.1 | |||||||||
| 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 14.8 | 26.0 | 7.1 | ||||||||
| 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 27.1 | 18.0 | 2.4 | |||||||
| 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 8.6 | 0.6 | ||||||
| 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | ||||||
| 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 19.8 | 33.9 | 13.0 | 1.4 | >0.0 | ||||||
| 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 34.5 | 36.2 | 8.5 | 0.5 | >0.0 | ||||||
| 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 46.4 | 29.4 | 3.9 | 0.1 | >0.0 | ||||||
| 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 60.6 | 17.9 | 1.2 | >0.0 | >0.0 | ||||||
| 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 77.6 | 13.4 | 0.4 | >0.0 | |||||||
| 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 85.2 | 6.6 | 0.1 | ||||||||
| 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 92.9 | 2.3 | |||||||||
| 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 97.6 |
*Top 4 protected pick. Will belong to the Magic if the Bulls don’t select in the Top 4.
WHO ARE THE FRANCHISE REPRESENTATIVES?
Here is the complete list of the fourteen personalities present.
- Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace
- Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka
- San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt
- Charlotte Hornets: Mark Williams
- Portland Trail Blazers: Brandon Roy
- Orlando Magic: Jamahl Mosley
- Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton
- Washington Wizards: Wes Unseld Jr.
- Utah Jazz: Collin Sexton
- Dallas Mavericks: Nico Harrison
- Chicago Bulls: Dalen Terry
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Nick Collison
- Toronto Raptors: Bobby Webster
- New Orleans Pelicans: David Griffin
