The “lottery” has become an increasingly popular event, in the NBA, but also internationally and particularly in France for two years. The 2023 “lottery” was notably a real event, when the Spurs took first place from the Hornets to secure the royal road to Victor Wembanyama.
Last year too, it was also on this evening that the destinies of Zacharie Risacher And Alexandre Sarr have decided, since the two “Frenchies” will ultimately be chosen in the first two positions.
On Monday, the NBA gave the official dates of the 2025 “lottery”and like last year, this will take place on May 12, between the “NBA G-League Combine” from May 9 to 11 and the “NBA Draft Combine” (from May 11 to 18) where all the prospects of the world will have the opportunity to be scrutinized by the 30 franchises of the league.
After the French hegemony of the last two years, the main issue this time will revolve around the phenomenon of Duke, Cooper Flaggannounced as number 1, even more so after its 42-point release this weekend.
WHO PARTICIPATES IN THE LOTTERY?
In theory, the “lottery” concerns franchises not qualified for the playoffs, i.e. the 14 teams with the worst records. They are assigned a spot, and therefore chances of winning the first pick, based on their regular season record. The worse a team was in the regular season, the more likely it was to pick first.
The arrival of the “play-in” has changed the theory a little since the NBA must wait for the eliminations of the play-offs to determine the “lottery teams”.
HOW WAS THE LOTTERY BORN?
WHAT ARE THE REGULATIONS?
Since 2019, the NBA has modified two essential elements, which aim to avoid “tanking” in the regular season.
– In theory, the three worst records of the season now have a 14% chance of winning first place on the evening of the “lottery”. Until 2018, the worst record had a 25%, or one in four, chance of landing the first pick. The two other worst records then respectively had a 19.9% and 15.6% chance of regaining this first place. A system in place since 2005 and which “tanking” had undermined for several seasons. With this reform, the worst team only has one chance in seven of winning the “lottery”, compared to one chance in four previously.
– Until 2018, only the first three choices were determined by the “lottery”, and the worst record of the regular season was therefore guaranteed to select in the Top 4. With this reform, we move to four choices designated by the draw by lot, and that means at the same time that worst regular season record might only have 5th pick.
HOW DOES THE DRAW TAKE PLACE?
The NBA uses 14 ping pong balls, numbered 1 to 14, and places them in a machine that resembles the Lotto machine. In total, there are 1,001 possible combinations (without taking into account the order in which the balls come out: in short, the combination 1-2-3-4 is the same as the combination 4-3-2-1). These combinations are assigned to teams based on the desired probability.
A first draw therefore makes it possible to determine the first choice. The balls are mixed for twenty seconds, then each ball is vacuumed at ten second intervals. Once the name of the first team is known, we put the balls back in the machine and start again to determine the second, third and fourth choices. If the combination of a team already drawn falls, the draw starts again.
Only the first four choices are drawn. From 5th to 14th place, the “lottery” then takes into account the ranking with the remaining teams.
THE PROBABILITIES AT THIS STAGE OF THE SEASON
