After a generally mastered first round for each team, the Nuggets dismissing the Lakers in five games and the Wolves sweeping the Suns in four, they find themselves in the Western Conference semi-finals, a year after having already faced each other in the first round of the 2023 playoffs (4-1 for the Nuggets).
In twelve months, many things have obviously evolved because, if Denver gleaned the first trophy in its history and then confirmed it in the regular season, Minnesota has for his part established himself among the leaders of the league, wanting to continue to upset the established order. A style opposition in perspective between the fiery attack of Colorado and the iron defense of Minneapolis.
As it stands, all the ingredients seem to be there for Nikola Jokic's Nuggets and Anthony Edwards' Wolves to pull out all the stops for two weeks, with players like Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Michael Porter Jr, Rudy Gobert or again Aaron Gordon and Naz Reid to play referees in the remote fight between the current best basketball player in the world and the one who aspires to become the face of the NBA.
PRESENTATION OF NUGGETS
The holders: Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
The replacements: Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, Peyton Watson, Justin Holiday, Zeke Nnaji, DeAndre Jordan…
Absent : Vlatko Cancar, Collin Gillepsie
The coach: Michael Malone
The reigning champions left with an almost unchanged group, who knew each other perfectly, and they finished with the best record in the West, tied with the Thunder.
On the way to a third MVP title, Nikola Jokic remains true to himself in excellence, Jamal Murray has never seemed as strong as in the playoffs, Aaron Gordon is the perfect counterpart to the “Joker” in the racket, Michael Porter Jr. is a confident third option and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope still excels as the “3&D” who does the dirty work. A group cut out for the double, despite a slightly limited bench.
THE STRONG POINT
– A group sure of its strengths. Around Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, who form what is perhaps the best duo in the league, the Nuggets are developing polished and solid basketball, where everyone knows their role and plays with confidence. The title result obtained last year and, very often this season, we saw them escape from difficult situations simply thanks to their collective mastery and the good application of Michael Malone's game plan. Illustration in the first round where, without panicking, Denver constantly escaped from the traps set by Los Angeles by relying on its leaders, its playoff experience and its systems.
THE WEAK POINT
– The ignition delay. Without Bruce Brown or Jeff Green, the Nuggets' rotations seem less secure than a year ago, which can harm them on certain evenings, but we especially noticed in the first round against the Lakers that the reigning champions had a tendency to getting into their matches badly. Fortunately, like a diesel, Michael Malone's men compensate by finishing their matches well but, against a Wolves team which loves to show its fangs from the start and which can also finish strong, Denver's timid starts can be costly .
PRESENTATION OF THE WOLVES
The holders: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert
The replacements: Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, Jordan McLaughlin, TJ Warren…
Absent : Jaylen Clark
The coach: Chris Finch
From mid-November until the beginning of March, Minnesota occupied first place in the West, before letting go in the final sprint, which still demonstrates the consistency of this team. Leaders can congratulate themselves on having focused on stability, after a disappointing first year. But the Wolves came back with other intentions: to defend strong, around Rudy Gobert, and display more offensive fluidity.
Result: Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns were selected to the All-Star Game, Rudy Gobert is heading towards a new Defender of the Year trophy and Naz Reid has established himself as the best backup in the country…
THE STRONG POINT
– An iron defense. Best defense in the league in the regular season (108 points conceded on 100 possessions), the Wolves confirmed it in the previous round against the Suns of the Kevin Durant – Devin Booker – Bradley Beal trio. The defensive issue is the common thread of Minnesota's season, like Anthony Edwards who, influenced by Rudy Gobert, has continued to progress on this side of the field. With Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley, Naz Reid or Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Chris Finch's men will have the weapons to annoy the Nuggets of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Especially if their attack is at first round level.
THE WEAK POINT
– Energy to channel. We remember the incident involving Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson last season, as well as Jaden McDaniels breaking his hand while hitting a wall, while Karl-Anthony Towns may have foul trouble and frustration , and that Anthony Edwards is never the last to start trashtalking his opponents and can sometimes walk out of his meetings. So many events that can handicap the Wolves in the middle of a match, and especially in the playoffs against the cunning of Nikola Jokic or Aaron Gordon, despite the presence of a stabilizer like Mike Conley.
THE KEY TO THE SERIES
– Minnesota, armed enough to contain Nikola Jokic? A priori, the favorites for the 2024 MVP and the 2024 DPOY will often find themselves face-to-face in this series, even if Rudy Gobert has never been able to slow down Nikola Jokic in the past (as, after all, any defender in the league…). A “Joker” who is nevertheless the essential cog in the slick, effective and punitive attack of these reigning champions who are difficult to take in key moments.
If the physique of Jamal Murray and the performances of Michael Porter Jr. will be as closely monitored as the contribution of Karl-Anthony Towns or the impact of the Wolves replacements, it is a safe bet that one of the keys of this conference semi-final is the ability of Rudy Gobert to make his presence felt by Nikola Jokic, with the help of Jaden McDaniels or Naz Reid. Because the effort will have to be collective, especially since the Frenchman will undoubtedly also spend a lot of time defending an Aaron Gordon who is struggling with his shot.
However, Minny will have no other choice than to pull out all the stops against the Serb. To see if this collective defensive approach will now work over a whole series of playoffs…
REGULAR SEASON
Tie 2-2
– November, 1st : Minnesota –Denver (110-89)
– March 19: Minnesota – Denver (112-115)
– March 29: Denver – Minnesota (98-111)
– April 10: Denver – Minnesota (116-107)
VERDICT
Denver 4-3. Jostled by the Lakers in the first round, the Nuggets are extremely wary of these Wolves, easy winners of the Suns at the same time, but we imagine that they will be able to raise the cursor according to greater adversity, in addition to draw on their collective experience to manage tense situations. Home advantage is also likely to be important in a series that we see lasting, which leads us to give the advantage to Denver rather than Minnesota in these playoffs.
CALENDAR
Game 1: in Denver, Saturday May 4 (1 a.m., Saturday night to Sunday)
Game 2: in Denver, Monday May 6 (4 a.m., Monday night to Tuesday)
Game 3: in Minneapolis, Friday May 10 (3:30 a.m., Friday night to Saturday)
Game 4: in Minneapolis, Sunday May 12 (2 a.m., Sunday night to Monday)
Game 5*: in Denver, Tuesday May 14 (to be determined, during the night of Tuesday to Wednesday)
Game 6*: in Minneapolis, Thursday May 16 (to be determined, during the night of Thursday to Friday)
Game 7*: in Denver, Sunday May 19 (to be determined, during the night from Sunday to Monday)
* If necessary.
