For the fourth time in five years, the Celtics and the Heat find themselves in the playoffs. The last time, it was during the last conference final, Jimmy Butler and his gang having led 3-0, before seeing Boston come back to tie, then finally winning in Game 7 to challenge Denver in final!
The problem is that the situation seems distorted for Erik Spoelstra's gang, with Jimmy Butler who is on the sidelines for several weeks following his knee injury suffered during the play-in against Philadelphia. Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson also absent, the Heat therefore appears very weakened on the outside for this first round.
PRESENTATION OF THE CELTICS
The holders: Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis
The replacements: Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Xavier Tillman, Jordan Walsh, Jaden Springer, Oshae Brissett, Neemias Queta
Absent : Luke Kornett
The coach: Joe Mazzulla
With their record of 64 wins for 18 losses, the Celtics signed the fifth best record in the history of the franchise, which is no small thing when you know the history of the Massachusetts club. With the best attack (122.2 points scored per 100 possessions) and the second best defense (110.6 points conceded per 100 possessions), Jayson Tatum and his gang therefore have the best “Net Rating” of the campaign, at +11.7!
Their margin in the field compared to the Thunder, second at +7.3, is the same as that between Oklahoma City and Indiana (+2.9), which finished 10th in terms of the difference between points scored and conceded over 100 possessions. This shows the impression of domination that the Celtics were able to give during almost the entire campaign.
THE STRONG POINT
– Sequences in steamroller mode. The Celtics first rely on a strong defense, with physical and athletic players, capable of “switching” everything on the outside, and a Kristaps Porzingis who plays the role of lightning rod perfectly. On offense, they are the team that shoots the most 3-pointers… but also the 2nd team in terms of skill in the field. In these conditions, opponents can sometimes go through the mill, when defensive stops follow one another and 3-pointers rain down on the other side.
THE WEAK POINT
– Managing key moments? Are the Celtics too reliant on their long distance address? Does their attack freeze too much in key moments, particularly in money-time? These are questions that can still be asked, as Jayson Tatum abused the fadeaway in clutch situations during the campaign and Joe Mazzulla struggled to find the best shots for his players when it mattered.
PRESENTATION OF THE HEAT
The holders: Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr, Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo
The replacements: Duncan Robinson (?), Kevin Love, Haywood Highsmith, Delon Wright, Patty Mills, Thomas Bryant, Orlando Robinson
Absent : Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, Josh Richardson
The coach: Eric Spoelstra
No Josh Richardson, no Terry Rozier (at least for the start of the series) and especially no Jimmy Butler. Without its leader, the Florida group managed to dismiss Chicago in the play-in, behind Tyler Herro in attack and Bam Adebayo on a mission on DeMar DeRozan in defense. But the Celtics are a completely different opponent.
Already not really brilliant when the group was complete (21st in offensive efficiency), the Miami attack risks having all the trouble in the world finding faults against the green wall of Boston.
THE STRONG POINT
– Erik Spoelstra and the group mentality. If you should never underestimate the heart of a champion, you should never underestimate the Heat either. Firstly because the club has in Erik Spoelstra a rare technician, capable of constantly adapting to continually keep the opponents on the alert. We can expect to see him pull out a few traps, while this group has nothing to lose and is used to overturning mountains.
THE WEAK POINT
– Who will be able to create the game? Without Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson, Miami must do without three important creators, or initiators, of its rotation. Tyler Herro, who missed (almost) the entirety of the last playoff campaign, will therefore have the heavy responsibility of generating the vast majority of his team's play. Except he can't be the only one to do it. Caleb Martin, who hurt the Celtics so badly last year, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and the others will also have to step up. A very complicated mission.
THE KEY TO THE SERIES
– Boston’s ability to avoid traps. On paper, the Celtics are so superior, with their entire group, that elimination against a Heat deprived of Jimmy Butler would be a monumental earthquake. Of course, we can count on Erik Spoelstra and his group to try to stop the machine, and above all to prevent it from starting, but Boston's strike force seems so superior that it seems mission impossible. Unless the Celtics panic in the face of Florida's traps, in close matches that they would not control…
REGULAR SEASON
Boston 3-0
– October 27: Boston –Miami (119-111)
– January 25: Miami – Boston (110-143)
– February 11: Miami – Boston (106-110)
VERDICT
Boston 4-1. Best team of the regular season, the Celtics are in full force against the Heat, deprived of their boss, Jimmy Butler, the man on whom this team relied heavily last year to get to the Finals. If we also add the absence of Terry Rozier, it seems very difficult to imagine Miami overthrowing Boston this time. Despite the zone defense, Erik Spoelstra's traps and the famous “Heat Culture”, it was difficult to see Joe Mazzulla and his players collapse in this new duel. Especially since they will be particularly vengeful.
CALENDAR
Game 1: in Boston, Sunday April 21 (7:00 p.m.)
Game 2: in Boston, Wednesday April 24 (1:00 a.m., Wednesday night to Thursday)
Game 3: in Miami, Saturday April 27 (12:00 a.m., Saturday night to Sunday)
Game 4: in Miami, Monday April 29 (to be determined)
Game 5*: in Boston, Wednesday May 1 (to be determined)
Game 6*: in Miami, Friday May 3 (to be determined)
Game 7*: in Boston, Sunday May 5 (to be determined)
* If necessary.
