If you had been told before the start of the season that Sacramento was going to grab the playoffs after 16 years of drought, and that they would finish squarely before the Warriors, defending champions, in the Western Conference standings, you probably wouldn’t have it. believed ! And yet, here we are!
With the arrival of Mike Brown, the Kings installed a new system and a new culture which made forget more than one moribund decade. Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox took their team to their third-place finish in the Western Conference with the league’s best offense. While the Kings were having fun at “Light The Beam”, it was grimace soup on the side of Golden State. After their title last season, their 2023 fiscal year began with Draymond Green’s punching Jordan Poole. They went on to lose seven of their first ten games, and struggled around 50% wins all season, while having to deal with the absences of Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins. They thus narrowly escaped the “play-in” and will therefore begin the defense of their title in the shoes of an outsider.
The Golden 1 Center will give them a warm welcome for the Kings’ long-awaited return to the playoffs, but Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and company will certainly not be intimidated. This promises us a Dantesque series. Review of the forces present.
PRESENTATION OF THE KINGS
Holders: D. Fox, K. Huerter, H. Barnes, K. Murray, D. Sabonis.
The replacements: D. Mitchell, M. Monk, K. Edwards, T. Lyles, A. Len, T. Davis, C. Metu
The absents : Mr. Dellavedova
The coach: mike brown
STRONG POINTS
– The best offensive rating in NBA history. Arrived from Golden State as a defensive specialist, Mike Brown has changed his tune to maximize the strengths of his workforce. He thus built an attack different from the usual patterns. The Kings are indeed the team that plays the least “pick & roll” of all the league. Like the Nuggets, they prefer to use their insides, Domantas Sabonis in the lead, as a high post hub and racquet head as their outsides move around strong side and weak side. De’Aaron Fox is the other essential pawn in this attack. By surrounding their two All-Stars with shooters (5th in 3-point attempts, 9th in success percentage), the Kings become very difficult to defend. With an offensive efficiency of 118.6 points per 100 possessions, they have the best offense of the season but also in NBA history!
– The Domantas Sabonis – De’Aaron Fox duo. Before the start of the season, the two leaders of the Kings had a crazy pressure on their shoulders. The transfer of Tyrese Halliburton last season brought Domantas Sabonis to California and installed De’Aaron Fox as the undisputed leader of the franchise. Their end to the 2022 season had left something to be desired, but with the arrival of Mike Brown, the two players signed their best career season. They were both voted All-Stars and are likely to be named to the All-NBA Teams. Domantas Sabonis (19.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists) finished as the league’s top rebounder and De’Aaron Fox (25 points, 6.1 assists) was decisive in money time throughout the season. The two guarantors of the Kings game will have to stay at this level against the defending champion to validate a ticket in the second round.
WEAK POINTS
– Defense. The Kings finished with the 6th worst defense in the league. With the exception of Davion Mitchell, they have no decent defenders. Despite an intransigent Mike Brown on this side of the field, the Kings are limited by their number and therefore do not have a collective arsenal with many options. Which is complicated when you have to deal with Stephen Curry. Even if Brown and his staff, which includes three former Warriors assistants, know Golden State inside out, the Kings should nevertheless suffer in this sector.
– The “second unit”. If each player of the Kings knows his role, the precision, the rigor, and the intransigence of the playoffs could quickly shorten the rotation of Mike Brown. Malik Monk can catch fire at any time but will have a target on his back in defense. Same for Trey Lyles. Davion Mitchell will be a nuisance in defense, but his lack of size and shooting will be hard to hide. The Warriors should be able to put pressure on starting Sacramento and force them to dip into their physical resources.
PRESENTATION OF THE WARRIORS
Holders: S. Curry, K. Thompson, A. Wiggins (or D. Di Vincenzo), D. Green, K. Looney
The replacements: J. Poole, D. Di Vincenzo (or A. Wiggins), G. Payton II, J. Kuminga, J. Green, A. Lamb. Mr Moody
The absents : A.Iguodala
The coach: Steve Kerr
STRONG POINTS
– The playoff experience. During the second half of the Kings’ purgatory in the NBA underworld, the Warriors reached six NBA Finals and won four championship rings. The backbone of that dynasty (Steve Kerr, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala) is still there, and despite their sixth-place finish in the West and a rocky season, it’s hard to ignore this imbalance as the Kings, with the exception of former Warrior Harrison Barnes, are inexperienced in the playoffs. Since the arrival of Steve Kerr in 2015, the Warriors have never lost a playoff series in the West, and they have won at least one road game in 27 consecutive series, an NBA record. Obviously, all series are made to stop but the Warriors will land in the furnace of the Golden 1 Center with the confidence and ambition of their past successes.
– The 3-dot address. Behind Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole, the Warriors are taking the most 3-pointers in the league this season, and are also the second most skilled team. Steve Kerr’s gang get those long shots with a game of movement, selflessness, and rhythm. The Warriors have always taken the annoying habit of abusing the shot from afar. Faced with the Kings, also skillful from afar, they will have to be careful not to fall into a shooting contest, especially in Sacramento.
WEAK POINTS
– bullet losses. It’s a recurring and historic theme for the Warriors. Each season, they are among the dunces of the league in this area. This season, they have lost the ball on 16% of their possessions. Last Friday, during the last duel between the two teams, against the B team of the Kings, Golden State lost 24 balls. If they do not correct this tendency in this first round, the penalty will be doubled. First, because Sacramento loses few balls. Then, because it is not recommended to give extra ammo to the best offense in the NBA. By losing the possession battle, the Warriors will put themselves in great danger.
– A lack of regularity. Throughout the season, the Warriors have lacked rigor and concentration. They very rarely knew how to play 48 minutes. These kinds of mistakes will pay off in the playoffs, even against a less experienced team. The team’s captains have proclaimed loud and clear that all of this will be settled once the playoffs come. We will therefore have the answer very quickly but it is difficult to imagine a team erasing 82 games of bad habits with the back of the hand. The Warriors have earned the benefit of the doubt, but it’s up to them to prove it.
SERIES KEYS
– Stephen Curry versus De’Aaron Fox. Essential piece of each of the two teams, Stephen Curry and De’Aaron Fox will have both defenses focused on them. With the presence of Donte DiVincenzo, the returns of Gary Payton II and Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors seem to have the personnel to make the Kings All-Star’s life difficult. To this, we can also add the versatility of Draymond Green, who has already been used on leaders (against Dallas and Jalen Brunson in the 2022 conference final, or against Chris Paul) to limit certain actions to two. Opposite, the equation will be much more complicated for the Kings. They don’t have any big-name defenders in their starting lineup and Fox won’t be able to carry his team’s offense and chase Curry down the other end. So that leaves rookie Keegan Murray, used on the double MVP during the regular season without it being a success, Davion Mitchell when he is on the field, and double-teams and traps that will force Curry to drop the ball but which will offer a 4-against-3 to the team most accustomed to playing them.
– What about Andrew Wiggins? After missing the last 25 games of the season to be at the bedside of his gravely ill father, Andrew Wiggins has made his return to San Francisco and should be dressed for Game 1 of the series. However, many question marks hang over his role and his physical condition. Will he be in charge? How long will he need to find his rhythm? His mere presence should at least help the defense of Golden State, who finished 6th in the league after the All-Star Game, but his return to the rotation risks having effects on the role of his teammates and the immediate cohesion of the team.
REGULAR SEASON
Warriors 3-1
October 23: Golden State – Sacramento (130-125)
November 7: Golden State – Sacramento (116-113)
November 13: Sacramento – Golden State (122-115)
April 7: Sacramento – Golden State (97-119)
VERDICT
This series has it all. It’s the Northern California derby. This is the reunion between Mike Brown and the Warriors. It is the defending champion facing the surprise rebirth of a team accustomed to the “lottery”. It will be offensive fireworks between two dynamic attacks that play selfless basketball, fun to watch. Despite the Kings’ good season, the playoffs represent a completely different challenge and the lack of flexibility of their workforce could be fatal against a team that can present several identities and tactical patterns, especially in defense. In the wake of Draymond Green, the Warriors should be able to slow down the Kings enough to regain home field advantage in the first two games. Stephen Curry poses him as an equation almost to be solved for the defense of Sacramento. And the defending champions have everything to finish the job at home in the sixth game to create the “upset”.
Warriors 4-2
CALENDAR
Game 1: April 16 (in the night from Saturday to Sunday, at 2:30 a.m.), in Sacramento.
Game 2: April 18 (on the night of Saturday to Sunday, at 4 a.m.), in Sacramento.
Game 3: April 21 (on the night of Saturday to Sunday, at 4 a.m.), in Golden State.
Game 4: April 23 (Sunday to Monday night), in Golden State.
*Game 5: April 27 (in the night of Wednesday to Thursday), in Sacramento.
*Game 6: April 29 (Friday to Saturday night), in Golden State.
*Game 7: May 1 (Sunday to Monday night), in Sacramento.
*if necessary
