For the first time in their history, the Nuggets start the playoffs as the number 1 seed and therefore the advantage of the field until the conference final. Except that they approach these playoffs with relative confidence. Nikola Jokic’s teammates clearly missed their end of the regular season, and Mike Malone’s rants didn’t really have any effect. The good news is that they are complete, and they face weakened Wolves.
Opposite, Minnesota has indeed experienced a very turbulent end to the season with the end of the season from Naz Reid having wrist surgery, Rudy Gobert’s punch on Kyle Anderson, and the other punch from Jaden McDaniels in a… wall . Result, a reduced rotation for Chris Finch, but a remarkable spirit of solidarity, and above all a Karl-Anthony Towns returned to its best level.
NUGGET PRESENTATION
Holders: J. Murray, K. Caldwell-Pope, M. Porter Jr., A. Gordon, N. Jokic.
The replacements: B. Brown, C. Braun, T. Bryant, R. Jackson, V. Cancar, D. Jordan, P. Watson, I. Smith.
The absents : none.
The coach: Mr Malone.
On paper, the Nuggets have never had such a dense and cut squad to go far in the playoffs. Last summer, management hit the mark by fetching defenders (Caldwell-Pope and Brown), and the starting lineup is balanced and strong with three, possibly four, All-Star-level players. They even managed to strengthen in February with the arrivals of Reggie Jackson to support Jamal Murray and Thomas Bryant to relieve Nikola Jokic. But the whole does not breathe serenity and it is difficult to have blind faith in a team that has lost 29 games this season, and capable of getting through against the Rockets or the Spurs.
STRONG POINTS
– Record in major matches. 13 wins for 4 losses. That’s the Nuggets’ record against the other Western Conference Top 6 teams (Memphis, Sacramento, Phoenix, LA Clippers and Golden State) at. For Mike Malone, it’s proof that his players are capable of raising their level of play when the opponent is strong, and he explained this week that it gives his players a lot of confidence. Another important element: Denver ranks 3rd in the NBA for its defense in the “money time” of close matches. It’s a stat that Mike Malone also highlighted this week because many playoff games are close.
– Nikola Jokic. For six months, he was the undisputed MVP, leaving to achieve the first hat-trick since Larry Bird in the mid-80s. And then the Nuggets marked time, and above all Joel Embiid raised his level of play, and that is as if Jokic had become a second-tier player… It is not so, and the Serb is in full possession of his means, capable of driving his opponents crazy with his movements, his technique and his reading of the game. the Towns-Gobert doublet, he will be in difficulty on both sides of the field, but we can count on him to thwart the two-man takes and space out the game as much as possible.
– A vengeful duo. Brilliant in the “bubble”, Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray have ants in their legs. The former has been a disappointment overall this season, but Jaden McDaniels’ absence could allow him to be the show’s X factor. As for the second, he was born for end-of-season battles, and we can count on him to raise his level of play.
WEAK POINTS
– The dynamic. The Nuggets remain on five defeats in seven matches, and the coach has pushed several mouths on his players, guilty of relaxation in the last two weeks, and especially of passivity. Clearly, Denver offers no guarantees and few see them going all the way. Are the Nuggets just a regular season team? The question arises, and we will have the beginning of an answer against Wolves.
– Discreet reinforcements. Although the team dominated the Western Conference, the leaders added two rookies of choice in February with Reggie Jackson, a regular in the playoffs, and Thomas Bryant, very good during the absence of Anthony Davis at the Lakers. For the moment, neither one nor the other have managed to pull out of the game. Which at the same time limits the rotations of Mike Malone.
PRESENTATION OF THE WOLVES
Holders: M. Conley, A. Edwards, K. Anderson, K. Towns, R. Gobert
The replacements: J. McLaughlin, A. Rivers, N. Alexander-Walker, J. Nowell, W. Moore Jr, T. Prince, J. Minott, N. Knight
The absents :Jade. McDaniels, N. Reid
The coach: C.Finch
Jaden McDaniels, stupidly injured in the hand and Naz Reid, operated on a wrist, Chris Finch is forced to tinker. A habit for him since he composed without Karl-Anthony Towns for months, and he had to adapt to the departures of D’Angelo Russell and the arrival of Mike Conley. Clearly, the Wolves coach deserves a medal for getting the best out of a group that was not always disciplined, weakened, and hit by Rudy Gobert’s punch on Kyle Anderson. But this team is very dangerous, and before spanking the Thunder, it had led by fifteen points against the Lakers. This is the trap opponent for the Nuggets, and this second qualification in a row in the playoffs is a small event since it had not happened to them since 2004!
STRONG POINTS
– An unfailing mind. Many teams would have foundered after the loss of their best player for 50 matches or after the start of a fight between two teammates. But Wolves have been through so much, between transfers, a buyout and injuries, that nothing seems to get to them. This team resembles its rookie, Mike Conley, both calm and efficient when it comes to three shots to snatch overtime, but also Anthony Edwards, with this mixture of talent and passion.
– 3-point efficiency. Although Rudy Gobert was back, the Wolves confirmed against the Thunder that they were effective at 3-pointers with a nice 41% from far. It is in line with their end of the season since the Wolves are in the Top 2 of the most skilful teams at 3-pointers since the All-Star Break (39%). This is all the more important as the objective will be to rule out the game to make room for Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert under the circle. It worked well against OKC who don’t have any “big guys” under the panels. Against Denver, it will be necessary to target Nikola Jokic and we can expect Wolves to look to pit him against Towns rather than Jokic.
WEAK POINTS
– Reduced rotation. The Wolves have lost two elements of their rotation in quick succession with Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels. Revelations of the workforce, they weighed more than 23 points per game, and above all they brought muscle and intensity. McDaniels is one of the best defensemen in his position, and Reid is not far from the best interior rotation in the conference. Without them, Towns and Gobert will have to watch their mistakes, and we saw against the Lakers that it could weigh in the 4th quarter. To replace McDaniels, Finch has three options: Alexander-Walker; Prince; Anderson. After opting for Alexander-Walker to defend over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he could opt for Prince against Michael Porter Jr, to keep the attacking impact of Anderson and NAW off the bench.
– The lack of identity. As Towns has missed fifty matches, the collective remains fragile, and the integration of Rudy Gobert remains under construction. The arrival of Mike Conley has stabilized the group but the Wolves do not yet impose their game on the opponents, and there is a lack of hierarchy in attack. Very talented and able to carry the attack, Anthony Edwards sometimes struggles to behave when the ball passes through Towns.
THE KEY TO THE SERIES
– The defense on Karl-Anthony Towns. The key player in the series is perhaps Aaron Gordon whose good season has not been highlighted enough, especially on his progress in defense. He is the one who will be in charge of defending on Towns, and he can cause him problems with his mobility and his liveliness. His role will be to prevent him from having the ball, but also to take the axis where Towns likes to attack his defender. This is all the more essential as the Nuggets haven’t faced Towns this season as he missed all four regular season games.
IN REGULAR SEASON
Tied 2-2
January 2: wolves – Nuggets (124-111)
January 18: nuggets –Wolves (122-118)
February 5: wolves – Nuggets (128-98)
February 7: nuggets –Wolves (146-112)
VERDICT
Don’t count on the regular season to get an idea of this opposition, due to absences, rests and the exchange of slaps before the All-Star Game. What we remember all the same is that the two formations had imposed themselves in their room, and the Nuggets will therefore benefit from the advantage of the field. Then, as we saw on Saturday with the Hawks, the “play-in” leaves traces and fresh and rested Nuggets can take advantage of it at the start of the series. Especially since Chris Finch is forced to limit his rotations, and to ask more of his key players. Advantage therefore in Denver for the richness of its workforce, its experience of the playoffs, and the impact of a player like Jamal Murray capable of raising his level of play in major events. As for Nikola Jokic, he will draw the two-man catch, and Denver, like Philadelphia against Brooklyn, has the shooters to punish the Wolves.
Nuggets 4-2
CALENDAR
Game 1: in Denver, Sunday, April 16 (03:30 a.m., Sunday night through Monday)
Game 2: in Denver, Wednesday, April 19 (04:00, Wednesday night through Thursday)
Game 3: in Minnesota, Friday, April 21 (03:30 a.m., Friday night through Saturday)
Game 4: in Minnesota, Sunday, April 23 (03:30 a.m., Sunday night through Monday)
Game 5*: in Denver, Tuesday, April 25 (TBD)
Game 6*: in Minnesota, Thursday, April 27 (TBD)
Game 7*: in Denver, Saturday, April 29 (TBD)
*if necessary
