As in the West, the East offers itself a “remake” of its Orlando bubble final, but it is also and above all a classic. Boston and Miami are used to meeting at this stage of the competition, and this was also the case last season with a series that was played on a shot, missed by Jimmy Butler, in a Game 7 .
Installed on the podium in the East throughout the season, Boston was expected at the turn to defend its crown in the East. The Heat, on the other hand, had to take a much more twisty path to get to the conference finals. Erik Spoelstra’s men have been in the soft sell of the conference throughout the campaign, living around 50% of victories and having to go through the play-in to validate their place in the playoffs.
Pat Riley’s charges surprised everyone by eliminating Milwaukee in the first round, before dominating New York in the second round. If it was hard to imagine Jimmy Butler’s gang in the conference finals a month ago, they have well deserved their place and they will, as usual, give a hard time to a Boston team which possesses the advantage of the field and a much better staff.
Since the 2019/20 season, the two teams have met 26 times. They have each won 13 matches. The Heat had gotten the better of the Celtics in six games in the bubble to reach the Finals. And Boston got their revenge last season in seven games. This conference final, in the form of a “beautiful”, promises to be just as rough and disputed, and even if Boston is the favorite, Miami has proven that they should not be underestimated.
PRESENTATION OF THE CELTICS
Holders: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Robert Williams
The replacements: Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Grant Williams, Sam Hauser, Mike Muscala, Payton Pritchard, Blake Griffin, Luke Kornet
Absent : Danilo Gallinari
The coach: Joe Mazzulla
STRONG POINTS
– A defensive momentum. Since the inclusion of Robert Williams in the starting five in place of Derrick White in Game 6 against the Sixers, the Celtics have found their superb defensively. They limited Philadelphia and MVP Joel Embiid to 36% on shots, including 23% from 3-pointers. Against Miami, Joe Mazzulla should continue this momentum against the racket Bam Adebayo – Kevin Love.
– “One of the best players in the world”. Jayson Tatum chose these words, “in all modesty”, to describe himself and the Celtics star proved he was right by annihilating Sixers fans in the last quarter of Game 6, before going on to 51 points in Game 7 to send Joel Embiid and James Harden on vacation and push Doc Rivers out. After the Celtics’ loss in the Finals last season, Jayson Tatum is over-motivated (28 points, 10.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists in the playoffs) at the idea of winning the title. Even if it means sometimes forcing, but his talent can unblock situations, and you need players capable of doing it in the playoffs.
WEAK POINTS
– Irregularity. We saw it in the first round against the Hawks, we saw it again in the second round against the Sixers. Boston alternated very good (Games 3, 6, 7) and mediocre (Games 1 and 5) against Philadelphia. Favorites against the Heat, the Celtics are not immune to underperformance, especially when everything seems to be going in the right direction. Let’s keep an eye on their intensity and focus in the first two games.
– The temptation of one-on-one and 3-point. Like other teams, the Celtics are at their best when the ball is moving and everyone is on pace. During the first two series, and during the regular season, one of their weak points was to entrench in one-on-one for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown especially when they are in a weak time, or by insisting too much on 3 points. If they fall into this trap against Miami, they will give the stick to be beaten.
PRESENTATION OF THE HEAT
Holders: G. Vincent, M. Strus, J. Butler, K. Love, B. Adebayo.
The substitutes: K. Lowry, C. Martin, C. Zeller, D. Robinson.
The absents : T. Herro, V. Oladipo.
The coach: E. Spoelstra.
STRONG POINTS
– “ Playoffs Jimmy ». If he was less impressive against the Knicks after his demonstration against the Bucks in the first round, Jimmy Butler remains the essential pawn of this Miami team. Tom Thibodeau was a lot less conservative than Mike Budenholzer in his defense of Jimmy Butler, trying many tactics including teaming up. But the Miami star showed patience and faith in his teammates to emerge victorious. Boston has even more defenders capable of hindering Jimmy Butler one-on-one (Smart, Tatum, Brown, White) and a more experienced second curtain than the Knicks (Horford, Williams). That said, Butler had found holes against the same defense last season. He will have to raise his level of play even more, despite his bruised ankle.
– Erik Spoelstra. Considered one of the best NBA coaches, especially for finding the right adjustments during playoff series, he dominated Mike Budenholzer and Tom Thibodeau in the first two rounds. Despite his young age, Joe Mazzulla proved he was a good choice for the Celtics after the Ime Udoka case. He finally found the right adjustments against the Sixers and will be ready for the Heat. Erik Spoelstra must win this duel to hope to reach new NBA Finals.
WEAK POINTS
– bench depth. Miami will always have to do without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, both injured, and if the second knives have responded so far, Boston presents a whole different challenge. Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin will play more than 25 minutes per game, but behind it will be more complicated for Duncan Robinson and Cody Zeller. The return to grace of Duncan Robinson, due to the injury of Tyler Herro, was synonymous with success for the Heat in its playoffs but will he be able to survive in defense in this series? Erik Spoelstra’s workforce is much less versatile than that of the Celtics, and that could make the difference.
– The exterior address equation. Regular season as playoffs, the Celtics are among the most prolific teams at 3-pointers, in attempts (39) as in percentage (39.5%). On the other hand, the Heat was violent after a very mediocre regular season behind the arc, before experiencing a revival in the playoffs (36 attempts on average, 36% success). To hope to win this series, the Heat will have to continue this momentum. If they do not limit the gap to 3-points during this conference final, their chances of going to the Finals will be almost nil.
SERIES KEYS
– The battle of tempo. The Celtics are malleable. They can play fast, like in the first round, but aren’t afraid of a trench battle, like in some games against the Sixers. Clearly the Heat don’t want to run with Boston. All season, Miami has been its advantage in more defensive, slower, “close” scoring games. Their defense must take control of the streak to frustrate their opponent, and turn Boston’s offense into isolation streaks to create loose ball opportunities and get easy baskets. Opposite, if the Celtics’ defense is in place, Erik Spoelstra’s men will have to be patient and surgical to force Boston to put the ball back in play and prevent them from transitioning and finding their rhythm.
– Which star will get the most help? With the two defenses focused on Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler and even if the two stars are likely to shine, the second knives will have a decisive role to play. Jaylen Brown and Bam Adebayo will undoubtedly be decisive. The pivot of Miami will however have to force himself to be aggressive in attack. He has too often been content in the past to let himself out of matches by the opposing defense. He won’t have that luxury against the Celtics. Behind these four players, it will be necessary to know who will be the X factor. In Boston, the options are not lacking with Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White and Robert Williams. On the Heat side, it’s less rich but Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson can change a match. Again, Boston seems to have the advantage.
IN REGULAR SEASON
2-2
October 21: Heat – Celtics (104-111).
November 30: Heat – Celtics (121-134).
December 02: Celtics – Heat (12o-116, ap)
January 24: Celtics – Heat (95-98).
VERDICT
Miami’s epic in these playoffs should logically come to an end against the formidable Celtics. Admittedly, the men of Joe Mazzulla tend to play with fire but they knew how to be violent when they were in danger against the Sixers and they however have much more assets to put forward than the Heat.
Boston has the ability to play different types of games and series, while Miami’s road to the Finals is much more complex. In this game of chess, everything must smile on the Heat to hope to create a third surprise in a row and become the second 8th seed to reach the NBA Finals after the Knicks in 1999.
Boston just has to get serious to defeat the Heat. For DNA of Sports, the Celtics will reach their second final in a row.
Boston 4-2
CALENDAR
Game 1 : this night (2h30), in Boston.
Game 2 : on the night of Friday 19 to Saturday 20 (2h30), in Boston.
Game 3 : on the night of Sunday 21 to Monday 22 (2h30), in Miami.
Game 4 : on the night of Tuesday 23 to Wednesday 24 (02:30), in Miami.
*Game 5 : on the night of Thursday 25 to Friday 26 (02:30), in Boston.
*Game 6 : on the night of Saturday 27 to Sunday 28 (to be determined), in Miami.
*Game 7 : on the night of Monday 29 to Tuesday 39 (02:30), in Boston.
*if necessary
