Started at top speed despite a turbulent summer (suspension of Ime Udoka, injuries to Robert Williams and Danilo Gallinari, etc.), the Celtics dropped off a bit in the second half of the season, but they are still in the playoffs with the second best record in the East, and even in the NBA, and above all an ultra-dense workforce.
And while we could expect a duel against a Heat team they had met in the last conference final, Boston will finally face the band of Trae Young, who won in “play-in” in Florida.
On paper, Joe Mazzulla’s troop has everything to afford a fairly quiet qualification for the conference semi-finals. Provided you don’t take the Hawks lightly and put in place the right habits in this “postseason” campaign. Because after their defeat in the Finals, the Celtics only think of the title!
PRESENTATION OF THE CELTICS
Holders: Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford
The replacements: Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, Grant Williams, Sam Hauser, Mike Muscala, Payton Pritchard, Blake Griffin, Luke Kornet
Absent : Danilo Gallinari
The coach: Joe Mazzulla
Even if Danilo Gallinari is not there and the Italian has very little chance of playing again this season, Brad Stevens has done a lot of work to further densify the rotation of the Celtics. With the arrival of Malcolm Brogdon, the team thus has a hard core of eight ultra-solid players, even if the rotations are reduced in the playoffs. That should save Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to the max, as the team now has more players who can handle the leather and create. A dense and talented group to aim as high as possible.
STRONG POINTS
– Few weaknesses. Second best offense of the season (117.3 points scored on 100 possessions) behind the Kings and second best defense (110.6 points conceded on 100 possessions) behind the Cavaliers, the Celtics are solid in all compartments of the game, with as already mentioned a rotation dense made of effective shooters, with in particular an Al Horford who runs at 45% success at 3-points, his best career season in the field! If Boston maintains this level of efficiency, while displaying their best defensive face, they will be particularly difficult to fetch. Especially for those Hawks…
– An ability to punish weak defenders. Although Boston’s game is at its best when the ball is alive and moving, the Celtics love to punish favorable matchups and it’s a safe bet that they will relentlessly attack Trae Young with this in mind. As we saw against the Heat, the latter can make defensive efforts, but he will surely be constantly targeted by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown after screens and the Hawks cannot afford to see him take too many fouls . Because it is their whole attack that then risks coughing.
WEAK POINTS
– A 3-point over-dependency? The Celtics are the second-most 3-point-shooting team in the NBA this season, behind the Warriors, with 42.6 attempts per game. So it’s almost 50% of the team’s shots. Knowing that the team has the 6th best success rate in the field (37.7%) and that it has a lot of effective shooters, Joe Mazzulla’s troop has no reason to deprive themselves. The problem is that Boston’s success therefore depends heavily on its success from afar. Boston’s record is thus 42 wins for 6 losses when the team displays more than 35% success at 3-pointers in a match, but only 15 wins for 19 losses below this bar. On such a volume, it makes sense, but Jayson Tatum and his teammates will have to be careful not to just shoot from afar to make a difference in this series.
– The inexperience of Joe Mazzulla. Being a rookie coach is no longer a problem in the NBA, with a view to playing for the title. Joe Mazzulla also had a very good first regular season, in a difficult context. The fact remains that he will discover the postseason as a “head coach” and that he will logically be under pressure.
PRESENTATION OF THE HAWKS
Holders: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Clint Capela
The replacements: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, Onyeka Okongwu, AJ Griffin, Jalen Johnson, Aaron Goliday, Frank Kaminsky, Vit Krejci
Absent :/
The coach: Quin Snyder
All year, the Hawks have flirted with 50% wins to end up with a perfectly balanced, and perfectly logical, record of 41 wins for 41 losses. The arrival of Dejounte Murray last summer did not really wake up this group, nor the departure of Nate McMillan, replaced immediately by Quin Snyder, who this time did not act as the hoped-for shock. While things are also moving behind the scenes with the sidelining of GM Travis Schlenk and the takeover of a new team, the future of this workforce is very unclear. Just like its present overall.
STRONG POINTS
– An attack capable of making sparks. The Hawks are again this year the 7th best offense in the league (115.5 points scored on 100 possessions) and with Trae Young maneuvering to punish opposing defensive choices, this team can knock down anyone, at least in one game. . We saw it in Miami, where the good intentions and the aggressiveness of Quin Snyder’s players took the Heat by the throat, despite being at home. If the two clubs engage in an attacking contest, Atlanta can do well.
– The rebound. Yet rather good defensive rebound this season, the Heat was eaten by the Hawks during the play-in (63 taken to 39, including 22 offensive rebounds for Atlanta!). This season, Quin Snyder’s team was also the one that scored the most second chance points against the Celtics (19 on average). Since the All-Star Break, the Hawks are even the second best team in offensive rebound in the league, thanks obviously to Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu. To see what will happen against the Celtics, but Atlanta has a card to play…
WEAK POINTS
– A crumbly defense. Obviously, if the Hawks are so average despite such a good attack, it’s because their defense is very fragile. Atlanta is thus only 22nd in defensive efficiency (115.4 points conceded on 100 possessions), conceding a lot of points in the racket (54.7), despite the presence of Clint Capela. Only the Spurs do worse in the area (56.7). In a series where Quin Snyder will undoubtedly have to “hide” a maximum of Trae Young against the opposing All-Stars, it looks complicated to hold the shock over time.
– Difficulties facing the Celtics bench. The last game of the season, with almost all of the holders on both sides resting, was obviously a sham, but in the two previous clashes, the Hawks had already suffered against Boston substitutes. This season, Boston’s leading scorer against Atlanta is even… Sam Hauser (53 points), tied with Jayson Tatum. In turn, Malcolm Brogdon, Luke Kornet, Payton Pritchard or Blake Griffin shone in these duels and if Boston’s substitutes remain as effective, the Hawks will have no chance of keeping pace with the Celtics and achieving the upset.
THE KEY TO THE SERIES
– Trae Young, the target. Turning off the point guard is turning off Atlanta, and the Celtics have several options for doing that. In particular, they have several big defenders who can take turns on Trae Young, with Derrick White, Marcus Smart or Malcolm Brogdon, even Jaylen Brown. They can also attack him in defense to make him take faults and wear him down physically. Atlanta’s salvation will come from its leader’s ability to shine, and make his teammates shine, on offense, while holding the shock on defense.
REGULAR SEASON
Boston 3-0
November 16: Celtics –Hawks (126-101)
March 11 : Celtics – Hawks (134-125)
April 9: Celtics – Hawks (120-114)
VERDICT
Even if the Hawks have struck a blow in Miami, and they have nothing to lose, it is hard to see this unbalanced team coming to the end of these so solid Celtics. The size and physical intensity of the Massachusetts group thus seem too much for Trae Young and company, who have the weapons to annoy Jayson Tatum and his band in sequences, even make them doubt if the Celtics 3-pointers do not fall into it. over too long a period. But on a series in four winning games, Atlanta seems too below collectively.
Celtics 4-1
CALENDAR
Game 1: in Boston, Saturday, April 15 (9:30 p.m.)
Game 2: in Boston, Tuesday, April 18 (01:00, Tuesday night through Wednesday)
Game 3: in Atlanta, Friday, April 21 (1:00 a.m., Friday night through Saturday)
Game 4: in Atlanta, Sunday, April 23 (01:00 a.m., Sunday night through Monday)
Game 5*: in Boston, Tuesday, April 25 (to be determined, Tuesday night through Wednesday)
Game 6*: in Atlanta, Thursday, April 27 (TBD, Thursday night through Friday)
Game 7*: in Boston, Saturday April 29 (to be determined, on the night of Saturday to Sunday)
* If necessary.
