We meet once again ! A year after their face to face in the first round of the playoffs last season, the Kings once again face the Warriors, their neighbors from San Francisco. The two teams had given us a tantalizing seven-game series, capped by Stephen Curry's 50 points to send Golden State into the second round.
Like last season, it is the Kings who will have the home field advantage but both teams have had a lot of ups and downs this season to get to this point. The Kings were on track to qualify directly for the playoffs, but injuries to Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk derailed their season and changed their playing identity. They plummeted to ninth place during the final three weeks of the regular season.
The Warriors, for their part, experienced a dark first part of the season between the two suspensions of Draymond Green, injuries, the poor performances of key players and the death of their assistant coach Dejan Milojevic. Steve Kerr's gang, however, raised the bar from February behind numerous rotation changes. They finished the season with 26 wins in their last 38 games and will come to the Golden 1 Center full of confidence and with the assurance of being much better than their 10th place suggests.
PRESENTATION OF THE KINGS
The holders: Fox D, Ellis K, Murray K, Barnes H, Sabonis D.
The replacements: D. Mitchell, T. Lyles, A. Len, C. Duarte, K. Edwards, S. Vezenkov.
The absents : K. Huerter, M. Monk.
The coach: Mr. Brown.
With two fewer victories than last season, the Kings are still carried by the duo De'Aaron Fox – Domantas Sabonis. Behind them, Keegan Murray confirmed his good rookie season, progressing in all areas of the game with the exception of his long distance skill. Harrison Barnes brings all his experience, and the emergence of Keon Ellis has allowed Mike Brown to focus more on defense. The Kings have also finished 14th best defense in the league. And since March 1, they have the 3rd best in the entire NBA.
The strong point
– The Fox – Sabonis duo. It all starts with these two players for Sacramento. With an average of 26.6 points and 37% from 3-point range, De'Aaron Fox had a better season than last season. He has also made clear progress in defense. His speed poses a lot of problems for the Warriors defense. Domantas Sabonis (19.4 points, 13.7 rebounds, 8.2 assists) also improved, finishing first in the NBA in triple-doubles and double-doubles, setting a new franchise record with 61 consecutive double-doubles. The Warriors, however, are his nemesis. His lack of mid-range shooting killed the Kings last season, and Golden State should probably opt for a similar strategy tonight.
The weak point
– Bench depth. By losing Kevin Huerter for the season, and Malik Monk for several more weeks, the Kings lost their 4th and 5th best scorers but also part of their identity. Huerter was one of Sabonis' favorite hand-to-hand partners, a central tactic for the Kings' offense, and Monk is in the running to win sixth man of the year. He averaged 19 points per game in the first round against the Warriors last season. Without these two players, Mike Brown should therefore play with eight, as recently against Phoenix (Fox, Ellis, Barnes, Murray, Sabonis, Mitchell, Lyles, Len), with a much less explosive squad, putting a lot of pressure on the quartet Fox – Sabonis – Murray – Barnes who should all flirt with 40 minutes of playing time.
PRESENTATION OF THE WARRIORS
The holders : S. Curry, K. Thompson, A. Wiggins, D. Green, T. Jackson-Davis
The replacements : J. Kuminga, C. Paul, B. Podziemski, K. Looney, M. Moody, D. Saric.
The absents : G. Payton II
The coach :Willie Green
Unlike the Kings, the Warriors finished with two more wins than last season and a better differential. Unfortunately for them, the entire Western Conference has progressed and they have therefore lost four places in the standings compared to the 2022-23 season. This disappointing tenth place came from two main factors: the 17 games missed by Draymond Green on suspension and the poor performances of Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney during the first half of the season. After numerous permutations, Steve Kerr finally found the solution, allowing Golden State to finish the season by winning 10 of their last 12 games.
The strong point
– The external balance sheet. Last season, the Warriors were one of the worst teams in the league away from home base. This season they have once again become one of the best away teams in the league with 25 wins and 16 losses. They have won 17 of their last 21 games away from Chase Center. Much more rigorous on the outside, they therefore arrive in Sacramento (a journey of an hour and a half by bus) with rested legs and knowing that they can win on the Kings floor. Since 2022, the Warriors have indeed won 5 of the 9 games they have played at the Golden 1 Center including 2 out of 4 in the playoffs last season, including this famous Game 7 where Stephen Curry scored 50 points and Kevon Looney took 21 rebounds, including 10 offensive ones.
The weak point
– Money time management. This season, the Warriors have played 48 clutch games, that is to say games with a difference of 5 points or less with five minutes to play. They have won and lost 24. They have also lost the second most games this season after leading by 15 points. Notably one in Sacramento and this lack of rigor at the end of the match cost them a direct place in the playoffs. The last three confrontations between the Warriors and the Kings have been decided by one point. In a decisive match, we can envisage another close match between the two teams. Will the Warriors be able to exorcise their regular season demons?
THE KEY TO THE MATCH
– What second knife to turn the match? Mike Brown is one of those NBA coaches who does not hesitate to send aggressive two-handed shots at Stephen Curry. The Warriors know how to limit the impact of Domantas Sabonis. De'Aaron Fox and Klay Thompson can likely have a big game, but who among Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and others (Mitchell, Jackson-Davis, Lyles, Podziemski) will be able to make the defense pay? opponent to change the match?
REGULAR SEASON
2-2
October 27: Sacramento – Golden State (114-122)
November, 1st : Golden State – Sacramento (102-101)
November 28: Sacramento – Golden State (124-123)
January 25: Golden State – Sacramento (133-134)
VERDICT
Golden State Warriors. Steve Kerr's men are on the rise and they have a larger squad than their opponents. Mike Brown will have to pull on his executives and they risk arriving in the fourth quarter on their knees. This will be a notable advantage for the Warriors, who will however need a great Stephen Curry, in tough form since the All Star Game, to hope to travel to Los Angeles or New Orleans on the night of Friday to Saturday for go get the last ticket to the playoffs.
HOURLY
At 4:00 a.m., Tuesday night to Wednesday.
