Logic was respected in the East for the “play-in”, and the Heat, 8th in the regular season, will face the Bulls, 9th, this Friday evening. Like a year ago, Erik Spoelstra's players find DeMar DeRozan's partners, and it's at home again. The comparison stops there because Miami, 2023 finalist, is in low spirits after Jimmy Butler's injury.
Certainly, the Heat played a lot without him this season, but the All-Star guard/winger was born to play tough matches and to create exploits in the playoffs. Without him, this play-in is much more open than expected. Especially since the Bulls have nothing to lose after a difficult season.
PRESENTATION OF THE HEAT
The holders: T. Herro, J. Jaquez Jr, Ca. Martin, N. Jovic, B. Adebayo
The replacements: D. Robinson, K. Love, P. Mills, D. Wright, H. Highsmith, T. Bryant…
The absents : J. Richardson, J. Butler, T. Rozier
The coach: E. Spoelstra
We take (almost) the same ones and start again. This is what we wrote before the match against the Sixers. Except that since then, Jimmy Butler has been injured, and it's not at all the same Heat.
The confirmed absence of Terry Rozier also weighs, especially in attack. But no one is capable of replacing Jimmy Butler, leader by example, and soul of this team.
Bam Adebayo will have to take his responsibilities as leader, and Tyler Herro will forget his shot blocked by Nicolas Batum. On paper, the Heat leaves with a slight advantage against the Bulls, and the public will be a valuable 6th man. But what mental state will Erik Spoelstra's men be in with the unavailability of Jimmy Butler?
The strong point
– The experience. Whether it is the finalist players in 2023 or the elements who come to strengthen them like Patty Mills, experience is essential. This Heat team has been through almost everything, and they have proven in the past that they can overcome the blows of fate. This year again, Erik Spoelstra juggled injuries, to the point of using around thirty players. When legs feel heavy and morale wavers, experience remains valuable.
The weak point
– The attack. This season, the Heat finished 21st inoffensive efficiency with 113 points on 100 possessions. And that was with Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier… This team plays without a point guard, and even though Tyler Herro has gotten used to this “Devin Booker” role, he remains more effective when he can concentrate on the scoring. Under the panels, Nikola Jovic allows Bam Adebayo to take up all the space, but overall it remains average and predictable. Especially without Jimmy Butler, master of isolation and capable of causing valuable fouls.
PRESENTATION OF THE BULLS
The holders: C. White, A. Dosunmu, A. Caruso, D. DeRozan, N. Vucevic
The replacements: A. Drummond, J. Carter, A. Funk, D. Terry, H. Drell, T. Craig, A. Sanogo, J. Green
The absents : Z. Lavine, P. Williams, L. Ball, O. Bitim, J. Philips (?)
The coach: B.Donovan
The infirmary is full on the Bulls side with three starters already, and we do not know if Alex Caruso will be in gear after his sprained ankle. His participation will be decided at the last moment. If he is there, Billy Donovan will show up with his “small ball” five made up of four backs and Nikola Vucevic. This brings rhythm, defense and that's what is needed to hinder a Heat who are playing without a real playmaker.
The strong point
– External defense. As we saw against the Hawks, the Dosunmu-Caruso duo has the ability to hinder the best pairs of backs in the league, by cutting off passing lines, but also by hindering ball movement and movement. Their aggressiveness relieves Nikola Vucevic, a little alone in the racket, and against the Heat, this will be essential because Miami will rely more than usual on Bam Adebayo.
The weak point
– The absence of a real strong winger. The Bulls have played almost the entire season without a power forward, and Billy Donovan manages to impose his “small ball” against larger formations. Against the Hawks, who also played without a power forward, it held up. But what will happen against the Heat, and the mobility of a Nikola Jovic or the profession of a Kevin Love, or even against a zone defense?
THE KEY TO THE MATCH
– Tyler Herro’s address. Like Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro will have to raise his level of play, and he will have to be more skillful than against the Sixers (9 of 27 on shots, 4 of 14 on 3-pointers, 5 lost balls). This season, the Heat is 12 wins and 1 loss when Tyler Herro shoots 50% or more. This shows if it is a real barometer. The problem is that he loses a lot of energy directing the game, and he will have the Dosunmu-Caruso pair on his back to tire him out.
REGULAR SEASON
Tie 2-2
November 18: Chicago – Miami (102 – 97)
November 20: Chicago – Miami (100-118)
December 14: Miami – Chicago (116-124)
December 16: Miami – Chicago (118-116)
VERDICT
Chicago, because the absences of Terry Rozier, and especially Jimmy Butler seem difficult to fill against a Chicago team which relies on a strong outside defense, and the talent of a regular and effective “one-two punch” with DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vučević. In front of their home crowd, and after being finalist in 2023, the Heat have more pressure and the Bulls, more liberated, can take advantage of it.
HOURLY
At 1:00 a.m., Friday night to Saturday.
