Tuesday night, the Heat became the first team, ranked 7th in the Eastern Conference, to bow to the 8th. On Wednesday, the Bulls became the first team, ranked 10th in its conference, to earn a second chance to go to the playoffs. Separated by three places, the two franchises find themselves in the “final” of this “play-in” with the objective of winning the last ticket for the playoffs, and therefore the prospect of facing the Bucks. On paper, it smells like basketball from the East of the 80s/90s.
PRESENTATION OF THE HEAT
Holders : B. Adebayo, J. Butler, T. Herro, M. Strus, G. Vincent
The replacements : K. Lowry, K. Love, V. Oladipo, C. Zeller, D. Robinson, O. Robinson
The absents : Nikola Jovic
The coach : Erik Spoelstra
Erik Spoelstra changed his tune at the end of the season with an atypical five made up of four real outsiders and a pivot. Will he continue on this path against the Bulls when his Heat was walked on against the Hawks under the panels? Will he keep Kyle Lowry off the bench when he was the best player against Atlanta? The Heat keeps all its pieces to pass the Chicago obstacle, but its technician is still looking for the right formula.
The strong point
– Experience. Finalist in 2020 in the “bubble”, defeated in Game 7 of the conference final in 2022 after a last missed shot from Jimmy Butler, the Heat remain an experienced and difficult team to maneuver. Whether it’s Lowry and Love, NBA champions, or Butler and Herro, finalists, they are used to big meetings and “win or go home” matches. Opposite, there is also experience, but individually and collectively, the Bulls have not necessarily experienced this kind of moment.
The weak point
– Inconstancy. Number 1 in the Eastern Conference last season, with almost the same squad, the Heat are wildly irregular, as if the players were choosing their matches… Like their three leaders, Adebayo, Herro and even Butler against the Hawks, this Heat lacks the regularity to chain performances, and at the same time find confidence. An inconstancy that we find in the shots where this team, however equipped with good shooters, does not manage to sanction at 3-points. This season, the Heat rank 27th of 30 in 3-point skill. Last year, they were number 1! Facing them, the Bulls are the team that contests the most 3-point shots…
PRESENTATION OF THE BULLS
Holders: P. Beverley, A. Caruso, Z. LaVine, D. DeRozan, N. Vucevic.
The substitutes: C.White, A.Dosunmu, P.Williams, D.Jones Jr.
The absents : L.Ball.
The coach: B.Donovan.
He likes to repeat it, but Pat Beverley does indeed know the way to the playoffs, and his arrival has done the Bulls good. His impact on the attack remains limited, but he forms, with Alex Caruso, a solid defensive backcourt. Like the Heat, Billy Donovan trusts a five consisting of four outside and one inside. This is current basketball, and Nikola Vucevic has found his place in it over the weeks. The Montenegrin is a real anchor, at the low post, where Bam Adebayo prefers to position himself higher. This is not the only difference between the two formations but the Bulls seem to have found a balance, where the Heat always seeks it.
The strong point
– The dynamic In a disappointing season in many points, the Bulls’ defense saved the day and grabbed 10th place. Zach LaVine’s teammates remain on five wins in seven matches, including three in a row, and they therefore became the first team, ranked 10th, to qualify for the “final” of the “play-in”. A dynamic that turns into confidence when you know that the Bulls have “swept” the Heat in the regular season, with even two victories in Miami.
The weak point
– The offensive move. With Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, the Bulls have two great attackers, but whose qualities are expressed mainly in isolation. It’s valuable to have two strong one-on-one players in the playoffs, but it can also be counterproductive. It is therefore not a surprise to learn that the Bulls are among the teams that score the fewest points on assists. The ball circulates little, the movements are incidental, and the play on the half court can quickly be very predictable.
The key to the game
– The Heat defense. Renowned for its harsh basketball and its hardness, the Heat lost its identity two months ago. With 117 points conceded on 100 possessions since the All-Star Game, Miami even displays the 22nd defense in the NBA! We had confirmation against the Hawks where Miami “did everything that should not be done”. The two-man takes on Trae Young lacked conviction and were predictable. Behind, the rotations weren’t on point, and we’re not even talking about the delayed screens… If Miami doesn’t make the effort on this side of the field, especially against a strong trio of attackers, it’s lost. ‘advance.
In regular season
Chicago 3-0
October 19: Miami – Chicago 108-116
December 20: Miami – Chicago 103-113
March 19: Chicago – Miami 113-99
VERDICT
Chicago. Of course, the Heat play at home and you should never underestimate the talent of Jimmy Butler, or the strategies of Erik Spoelstra. Except that there is something wrong with this group, collectively. It’s as if Miami had spent its year regretting this Game 7 against the Celtics, or the departure of PJ Tucker. The latter has never been replaced and the Heat suffers in defense, but also on the rebound. And as the shooting skill has fled all season, slight advantage to the Bulls whose dynamics are better.
HOURLY
At 1:30 a.m., Friday night to Saturday.
