That's it, here we are. The final series of playoffs, the apotheosis of the 2023/24 season, will begin, and it will be between the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks. A poster that few observers imagined at the start of the campaign, even if it was especially the Texans who defied the predictions.
To the East, Jayson Tatum and his team in fact flew through the regular season (64 victories – 18 defeats), with the best attack of the season (122.2 points scored on 100 possessions) and even in history. And the second best defense (110.6 points conceded over 100 possessions). A ride which continued in the playoffs, despite the rapid injury of Kristaps Porzingis, the team having finally dropped only 2 matches in 14 outings, again with a real margin over its opponents, certainly weakened: the Heat, the Cavaliers and the Pacers.
In the West, it was more complicated for Luka Doncic and company, but they dismissed the Clippers in six games, taking advantage of Kawhi Leonard's injury, before getting the better of the Thunder in the conference semi-finals, still in six games, then over the Wolves, thanks mainly to their better money-time management.
Between the Celtics who have developed a formula that allows them to crush their opponents, and the Mavericks who have become masters in the art of exploiting opposing weaknesses, the chess game can begin…
PRESENTATION OF THE BOSTON CELTICS
The holders : Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis
The replacements : Al Horford, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Luke Kornet, Oshae Brissett, Jaden Springer, Xavier Tillman, Svi Mykhailiuk
The absents :-
The coach :Joe Mazzulla
STRONG POINTS
– A clear and effective formula. A physical defense, with many versatile defenders, capable of switching almost everything and an attack that uses a lot of 3-pointers to pummel its opponents. The formula developed by Joe Mazzulla is clear and precise, since his team has just had a historic season in terms of efficiency, only last year's Warriors (1,363) having notably scored more 3-points over a season than these Celtics (1,351). Enough to chain sequences of domination which are very painful to the opponent, and thus become a real steamroller very complicated to stop, once it is launched and in rhythm…
– A Jaylen Brown – Jayson Tatum duo more driving than ever. By winning the Larry Bird Trophy for best player in the Eastern Conference final, Jaylen Brown showed that he had reached another milestone, allowing the Celtics to have a double locomotive in these playoffs. For his part, Jayson Tatum is only 44% successful this “postseason”, with only 29% at 3-points, but he has often made the right shifts, notably in the “money-time” against the Pacers . The Jay's confidence in their teammates is a key aspect to keeping the opposing defense stretched to the maximum, and allowing this offense to express itself at full strength.
WEAK POINTS
– Dependence on the external address? Second most skilled team at 3-pointers (38.8%) in the regular season, although it was the one which took the most outside shots (42.5 per game) per game, Boston remains the team which shoots the most from far away in the playoffs (39.8%) but his outside skill dropped, obviously behind the clumsiness of Jayson Tatum. Against the Pacers, this drop in efficiency from a distance allowed the Pacers to stay in the matches, the Celtics having needed to overturn several matches in the “money-time”. This is because Joe Mazzulla does not have an exceptional creator in his squad, and his team therefore attacks in a methodical and direct manner, targeting weak defenders and favorable “matchups”, to create rapid shifts, while limiting pass repetitions. It can sometimes seem simplistic or stationary, and that's why the presence of Kristaps Porzingis is essential, because it allows opposing defenses to be punished in other areas, the Latvian being able to punish low post “switches”, or provoke two-person holds.
INTRODUCING THE DALLAS MAVERICKS
Holders: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Jones Jr, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford
Substitutes: Tim Hardaway Jr, Josh Green, Dante Exum, Derek Lively II, Dwight Powell, Jaden Hardy, Maxi Kleber
Absent : Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Coach: Jason Kidd
STRONG POINTS
– Consistent defensive solidity. Facing the Clippers, the Thunder then the Wolves, the Mavericks managed to defend strong, while it was a big question mark behind the Luka Doncic – Kyrie Irving duo. But the two men rolled up their sleeves, and Dallas is no longer afraid because the Dallas soldiers do the work behind, Derrick Jones Jr. notably doing a big job to float behind the two stars in order to limit opposing penetrations, while that Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington or Derek Lively II have constantly locked down the racket. Still, Boston, with its very wide play, represents a different challenge for Jason Kidd's defense.
– Judokas Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Even if we talk about it less, Luka Doncic has been suffering from injuries since the first round of the playoffs. The Slovenian, however, has learned to deal with it and even if, like Jayson Tatum, his overall efficiency has decreased compared to the regular season, with 44% overall success in these playoffs, including 34% at 3-points, it is his ability to exploit the slightest opposing weakness, by maximizing his teammates, which is the key to Dallas' success in this “postseason”. Especially since he is well helped in this task by the “ultimate joker” Kyrie Irving at his side, capable of making the difference in one-on-one against anyone.
WEAK POINTS
– Too much pressure on Derrick Jones Jr? The Jaylen Brown – Jayson Tatum duo represents a new challenge for the Mavericks defense, with two wingers to control simultaneously, both on penetrations and at 3-points. Kawhi Leonard's injury in the first round avoided this headache, while the Thunder and the Wolves are not in this configuration. Who will hold the one-on-one duels against the Celtic tandem, when Derrick Jones Jr. is the only defensive specialist on the wings, and he also has a major covering role behind his own “backcourt”? This will be a question for Dallas, who must find ways to hold together collectively.
THE KEYS TO THE SERIES
– The fitness of Kristaps Porzingis. The Latvian interior will be there, from Game 1 of the Finals. Except that he hasn't played since April 29, and he can't necessarily promise that he will be 100%. However, the Celtics will need him against Dallas, the strongest opponent they will face in these playoffs. From his ability to spread the play, to punish defensive “switches” in the low post and to provoke assists from this zone, to his size and his intimidation on defense. If he is reduced, Boston will have to rely a lot on the eternal Al Horford but the latter was attacked a lot by the Pacers in the previous round, and Luka Doncic will not deprive himself of it…
– The 3-point address of Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic. Talking about outside address as a key point has become a bit easy in today's NBA but for Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic, it's a reality. If the Celtics winger finds the sights, it risks being very complicated for Dallas as it is complicated to cover all the space claimed by the Boston attack. For his Mavericks counterpart, it's a bit all or nothing in these long-distance playoffs, since he shoots either less than 36% from far or more than 46%! In the six games where he shines from afar, Dallas has always won, while the team has a record of 6 wins for 5 losses when he is at 36% or less at 3-points. The good news for Dallas is that its leader has managed more than 46% in five of his six games… over the last seven games. Preventing Luka Doncic from heating up from afar, without leaving him any openings for his teammates behind the defense, in the air or in the corners, will be essential for Boston.
– Defense in the “corner”. Corner shots have been an extremely valuable weapon for Dallas in these playoffs, especially against Oklahoma City. The Mavericks are the team that tried its luck the most in the area during this “postseason”, thanks to the shifts of Luka Doncic, with a superb 40.3% success rate in the exercise. But Boston is doing a lot of work, thanks to its very versatile defense, to limit these opportunities, and hold its opponents to 23.5% in these playoffs.
– Nerves. The pressure gradually builds in the playoffs, reaching its climax in the Finals. In 2022, Jayson Tatum and the Celtics had been crushed by a stratospheric Stephen Curry and the blinding lights of the NBA's biggest stage. They must now show that they know how to manage this environment, but Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are not necessarily immune to it. The first may have matured, and tried to calm things down before his highly anticipated return in front of his former audience, he will undoubtedly be heckled by the fiery and provocative fans at TD Garden, and he will have to keep a cool head. As for Luka Doncic, if he has recently managed to channel his frustration by directing it against a few fans or opponents, he must prevent it from boiling over again, because that is where he leaves matches, by winning against everyone, even his teammates.
REGULAR SEASON
Boston, 2-0
– January 22: Dallas – Boston (110-119)
– 1st of March : Boston – Dallas (138-110)
VERDICT
Who will be the sixth different champion over the last six NBA campaigns? The reason logically leans towards Boston, with a group which is reaching maturity and which can rely on the setback of 2022 to prepare for these Finals, with the return of Kristaps Porzingis in addition.
But the beauty of the NBA, and in particular the playoffs and the Finals, is that “reason” is often undermined by the brutal truth of the field, the “matchups” and the balance between strengths and weaknesses of the two teams.
With Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, the Celtics have defenders to slow down Kyrie Irving, but will they also manage to limit Luka Doncic and all the options he can use? Will the Mavericks' defense succeed in containing the game away from Boston, while Dallas has so far excelled in the art of closing its racket? Who will be the X factors? So many questions for which we await the answers…
CALENDAR
Game 1: in Boston, Thursday June 6 (2:30 a.m., Thursday night to Friday).
Game 2: in Boston, Sunday June 9 (2:00 a.m., Sunday night to Monday).
Game 3: in Dallas, Wednesday June 12 (2:30 a.m., Wednesday night to Thursday).
Game 4: in Dallas, Friday June 14 (2:30 a.m., Friday night).
Game 5*: in Boston, Monday June 17 (2:30 a.m., Monday to Tuesday night).
Game 6*: in Dallas, Thursday June 20 (2:30 a.m., Thursday night to Friday).
Game 7*: in Boston, Sunday June 23 (2:00 a.m., Sunday night to Monday).
