As the opening of the new season draws closer and closer, USA Basketball continues its traditional presentation, franchise by franchise, of the upcoming NBA season. Like every year, this one takes the form of a countdown, from the worst record in the league to our favorite for the title of champion.
After a detour to Orlando a few weeks ago, we return to Florida, this time to Miami to review the Heat’s summer.
Finalist in 2020 in the Orlando health “bubble”, disappointing the following year and logically eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by the Bucks, the South Beach troop regained positive momentum last year. After a very good regular season (53 wins and first place in the Eastern Conference), the Heat indeed quite easily reached the conference final against Boston, after a first round completed in five innings against Atlanta, and a second round in six innings against Philadelphia.
Incredibly contested and intense, the series against the Celtics did not go far from turning in favor of the Floridians, since everything was finally decided on this final 3-point shot missed by Jimmy Butlerin all the last moments of the seventh inning.
After this bitter end to the course, which did not detract from the overall quality of the club’s 2021/22 financial year, the offseason was calm in Miami, quite logically. Very close to the Finals, the Heat have effectively chosen stability, retaining their most important “free agents” – Victor Oladipo, Caleb Martin, Dewayne Dedmon and Udonis Haslem to a lesser extent – with the exception of P.J. Tuckerholder of position 4 all season and left to occupy this same position with the 76ers.
The biggest record of the offseason for Pat Riley was ultimately that of Tyler Herrorecently extended at a high price (four years, $130 million), one year from the end of his rookie contract.
In summary, the Heat of last year is essentially the same as the one who will walk the floors this season. A solid and serious Heat on both sides of the field, which will play the leading roles in the East, as usual.
SUMMER MOVEMENTS
– Arrivals : Nikola Jovic (Draft)
– Departures : PJ Tucker (76ers), Markieff Morris (Nets)
PLAYER TO WATCH: Tyler Herro
An obvious choice after a lucrative contract extension. Soon to be paid as a holder, even as a superstar, Tyler Herro is accountable to his leaders. He must justify this salary, show that his club was absolutely right to trust him, and that he will not rest on his laurels.
For now, Erik Spoelstra has not indicated if his 22-year-old fullback will join the five majors or if he will keep his role as sixth man. Nevertheless, Pat Riley had been clear at the beginning of the summer: to be an indisputable holder, the best 6th man in title will have to become a real “two-way player”, much more solid in defense.
Holder or replacement, the expectations will in any case be the same: to continue to progress. Offensively, the player is coming off a successful season (44.7% on shots, 39.9% from behind the arc, 86.8% on free throws), but he certainly still has room to clean up his decision-making.
The ideal? That he continues to progress to such an extent that he raises the level cap of his team, while seriously knocking on the door of the All-Star Game in February. For his coach, he was already not that far off last year.
Average age: 28.4
Payroll: $153.8 million (18th)
THE IDEAL SCENARIO
With a workforce almost unchanged, the Heat has no trouble replicating its success of the previous year in the regular season, and remains a juggernaut in the Eastern Conference. The Game 7 loss in the conference final against Boston left its mark, but in a good way.
Indeed, Erik Spoelstra’s players, on mission, keep in mind this bitter feeling of having failed so close to the goal to constantly stay motivated, and maintain a stifling intensity for the opponent every evening. Among the most important internal progressions, there is also at the top of the list Tyler Herro.
If his consequent contract extension is only effective from the 2023/24 season, the back of the Heat does not waste time to show his progress and justify the confidence of his leaders.
At the end of the regular season, the Heat thus remain at the top of the Eastern Conference and therefore attack the playoffs with home advantage until the end. In addition, and this is quite rare in recent years, the workforce has avoided major injuries throughout the season, and all players are then in the best possible rhythm to embark on the quest for the title. Reinforced by a very solid winger during the campaign (Jae Crowder?), the Heat look great, with an oiled collective and no real weak point. All the weapons therefore to get the title.
WORST SCENARIO
The certainties of last season are flying away, and we find the unstable Heat of the 2020/21 season instead. Defensively, it’s still high level, but the offense is surprisingly much less effective than last season (113.7 points on 100 possessions, 10th best in the league), while the formula is still the same.
Starting with Jimmy Butler, still the Heat’s best player but who hasn’t quite regained his sparkling level of the previous year. For Bam Adebayo, it’s still the same refrain: he is not enterprising enough in attack, and the offensive phases of the Heat then sometimes tend to become predictable. Rid of his personal worries, Kyle Lowry is in better physical condition, but the age is felt for the point guard, who always alternates between the field and the infirmary, while Tyler Herro remains true to himself out of bench, but begins to be annoyed by the refusal of its leaders to grant him a starting place…
In short, the Heat’s regular season is sluggish. The ranking of the club at the end of the exercise is in this image: a place in the Top 6 is certainly assured, but without the advantage of the field. The Heat must therefore move to a regular season cador in the first round, with the only certainty of a defense that will do the job.
An ‘upset’ isn’t impossible as the Heat are never to be underestimated, but it’s going to take exhausting effort from ‘Spo’ men and overall the 2022/23 season is a step up. back in the hierarchy.
