As the resumption approaches, DNA of Sports continues its traditional presentation, franchise by franchise, of the upcoming NBA season. Like every year, this takes the form of a countdown, from the teams expected at the bottom of the ranking to our favorite for the champion title.
Today, direction Miami, the reigning finalist, defeated by the Nuggets. The Floridians struggled through the regular season, then flirted with exiting the road during the play-in, first by losing against Atlanta and then being behind against Chicago. Jimmy Butler and his gang have finally validated their ticket to the playoffs, before showing a much sharper face and joining the Finals against Denverhowever not going far from the penalty against Boston (they led 3-0 and won in Game 7).
In short, a strange season and an off-season afterwards which was not easy neither. Damian Lillard requested a transfer, saying he absolutely wanted to join Miami. The Heat saw this as an opportunity to recruit the missing piece to finally return to the top of the league, after failures in the 2020 and 2023 Finals. But Pat Riley failed to convince Portland’s leaders.
After the transfer of “Dame” to Milwaukee, the Heat then hoped to fall back on Jrue Holiday, which would have constituted a nice consolation prize. Except that, again, it was a failure, and as Gabe Vincent is no longer there, the playmaker position looks like a weak point, the weight of the years falling on Kyle Lowry. The departure of Max Strus was compensated by the arrival of Josh Richardson, who returned to Florida, and the hard core of the group still has not changed: Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo as leaders, still guided by Erik Spoelstra.
If this team is capable of the worst, or at least of missing out on certain matches during the regular season, it is also capable of the best, and of being the team that no one wants to cross in the East. Especially if she is motivated by her failure with Damian Lillard, and everyone is already imagining a conference final between Boston and Milwaukee. The Heat are never better than when they play the role of spoilsport.
SUMMER MOVEMENTS
Arrivals: Josh Richardson (Spurs), Thomas Bryant (Nuggets), RJ Hampton
Departures: Victor Oladipo (Thunder), Gabe Vincent (Lakers), Max Strus (Cavaliers), Cody Zeller (Pelicans)
PLAYER TO WATCH: TYLER HERRO
Jimmy Butler has now established himself as a playoff player above all and Bam Adebayo, even if Erik Spoelstra believes that he is neglected by the league’s GMs, is still a double All-Star. The most interesting case in Miami is therefore that of Tyler Herro. He missed the playoffs last season, injured in the first match of the first round against Milwaukee, and will really want to get back on the court.
Above all, despite his starting status and his trophy for best sixth man in 2022, the full-back is constantly in transfer rumors. The Heat were ready to part ways to get Damian Lillard back, but the Blazers didn’t want him. Clearly, Tyler Herro, at the center of discussions and criticism, is not unanimous. He set himself two objectives for this 2023/24 financial year: become an All-Star then establish yourself as “untouchable”like the player we no longer want to transfer.
One being undoubtedly linked with the other, this is an important season for Tyler Herro. Even if the Heat managed to dominate the Eastern Conference in the playoffs without him, with his points and his outside shots, he relieves Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and offers a strong solution to Erik Spoelstra’s attack.
Gabe Vincent and Max Strus will no longer be there to strike from afar, and the contribution of Tyler Herro becomes essential if the Heat wants to exist in this Eastern conference, especially against the two looming giants: the Celtics and the Bucks. The player has things to prove when the Heat need him, the perfect marriage of convenience.
Average age: 27.8 years
Payroll: $184.3 million (9th)
THE IDEAL SCENARIO
The defeat in the Finals against Denver then the expected arrival of Damian Lillard having failed, the Heat returned with drooling on their lips. Vengeful, Erik Spoelstra’s players are serious from the regular season. Thus, they push aside weak teams and often dominate the big teams, to climb into the Top 3 in the East.
Tyler Herro is having the best season of his career, Bam Adebayo is an obvious candidate for the defender of the year award, and Kyle Lowry, well established, avoids the infirmary.
This collective is still as solid and intense in defense, with its zone which is a real problem for opponents. By keeping its hard core, and with increased motivation, the Heat arrives in the playoffs with home advantage and a lot of certainty in their game. The other teams knowing very well that they will have a lot of difficulty winning four matches out of seven against this formation.
THE WORST SCENARIO
Missing Damian Lillard is a tough pill to swallow, especially since Kyle Lowry hasn’t gotten any younger. The playmaker does the minimum but against the big names, that’s not enough.
Jimmy Butler is therefore forced to take on the game much more than expected and he becomes exhausted during the regular season. Tyler Herro, for his part, sometimes does too much to show that he is now essential and to compensate for the departures of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. Once the euphoria of the playoffs has passed, marksmanship once again becomes a problem.
The philosophy installed by Erik Spoelstra certainly allows Miami to stay the course, therefore to rule out small and medium-sized teams without any problem, but we have the feeling that the 2023 finalists are slipping when the level rises.
Like last season, the Heat barely exceeded 50% of victories and failed to qualify directly for the playoffs. Except this time, the Heat are unable to avoid premature exit in play-in, and we feel that this group needs a second wind. Or maybe an extra star…
