Currently, when you look at the standings, two teams are mathematically guaranteed to make the playoffs: the Dodgers and the Astros.
They’re the only two teams in MLB that, right now, have more than 92 wins. The Astros secured their playoff spot in the final days and the Dodgers became the first team since the 2001 Mariners to win at least 100 of their first 144 games.
The club also had a third consecutive (full) season of over 100 wins. This does not include the 2020 season for obvious reasons.
But despite everything, according to FanGraphs, no less than five clubs have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. The Mets, Braves and Yankees are in the mix.
It’s only a matter of time before these clubs get their “X” in the standings and it’s the same for the Blue Jays and the Cardinals, who have “only” a 99.9% chance to do series.
Even the Mariners (99.4%) and Rays (97.5%) are pretty sure to make the playoffs. I think that’s very high, but it’s true that with just over two weeks to go, the Orioles’ five games look like a mountain.
The Guardians are also over a 90% chance (90.9%, to be precise) since the White Sox and Twins, who are 4.5 and seven games behind Cleveland respectively, have little chance of qualifying for the fall dance.
Cleveland’s two wins over Minnesota yesterday helped to accentuate the trend.
So that means there are 10 teams in MLB that have a 90%+ chance of making the playoffs…including six in the American, where the identity of the teams seems very clear – unless there is a disaster.
The order has yet to be determined (which will be particularly important if Toronto plays at home), but the race that was expected in the American is less exciting than expected.
That said, in the National, it will be interesting to follow.
Besides the top four teams (Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta and St. Louis), there are three teams left that can make the playoffs via best runner-up: Philadelphia, San Diego and Milwaukee.
The Phillies (85%) and Padres (78.8%) are currently the teams most likely to make the playoffs.
The Brewers (36.2%) are only 1.5 games behind the Padres, however, and I find their odds a bit harsh in the conditions.
But clearly, this will be the biggest fight to follow by the end of the season… and I see the Brewers dropping it due to their lack of offense.
There would have been better fights in the standings if the series were still at five teams per league, but we will still have good series, we will tell each other. And ultimately, two more good teams will qualify.
