Kick-off on the night of Thursday to Friday at 2:15 a.m.
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
In a surprising NFC South, the two main contenders for the title meet this Thursday evening. On one side the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, division champions in 2023 and leaders again this season. On the other, the Atlanta Falcons, the in-form outsiders who have two consecutive victories.
Division rivals, these two teams expect a tough fight. They have faced each other 61 times since 1977, and the series is as close as it gets: Tampa Bay leads by 31 wins to 30, having regained control thanks to their victory in Atlanta at the end of last season. But Falcons fans can rest assured, their franchise remains on two wins in the last three meetings.
The Falcons are slowly taking off
After a suspenseful victory against the Saints, this Thursday represents the second consecutive division match for Atlanta. The Georgians enter this meeting with a 2-2 record, although they can thank the Eagles who offered them one of the two on a platter. Overall, the Falcons seem to be making progress and were more convincing against New Orleans. The defense is relatively solid, having allowed just 18.8 points per game, while the offense has scored 21.3 points per game. A decent average which could increase if Kirk Cousins (QB) finds his best level. Arriving in the offseason, the quarterback has so far completed only 64.7% of his passes for four touchdowns and as many interceptions. Although he played his part in both victories, his big contract means more is expected of him.
On the other side of the field, the defense provides more certainty. If there is an area of improvement on the ground, it has a solid anti-aircraft squad in its ranks. Twelfth in the NFL in terms of passing yards, she only allowed 3 touchdowns through the air, while at the same time making 3 interceptions. A remarkable performance, even more so when it is achieved against quarterbacks such as Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes or Derek Carr (2024 version).
Tampa Bay wants to establish its favorite status
Yet less expected in pre-season, the Buccaneers are once again placed in the race for the playoffs. After beating the Eagles (33-16) and taking first place in the NFC South, they go to Atlanta with the firm intention of confirming. For their first division match, their game will once again rely on a rediscovered Baker Mayfield. The former first choice of the 2018 Draft is on the basis of his best season: 70% of passes completed, 984 yards, 8 touchdowns in the air and 2 on the ground. Supported by the 11th defense in the league in terms of points conceded (19.5 per game), he will also be able to count on Chris Godwin. Facing a defense that conceded 28 receptions to receivers in the slot (3rd worst NFL total), the veteran should enjoy himself, having been aligned there 2 out of 3 times this season.
While the Saints will have a complicated clash against the Chiefs on Monday night, a victory this Thursday evening would likely give the Floridians a two-game lead. If they needed one more motivation, here's a big one.
Players to watch: Bijan Robinson & Bucky Irving
Within the Falcons offense, Bijan Robinson (HB) still shares the ground workload with Tyler Allgeier. However, he is much more present in the passing game. Faced with a solid defense against the run, allowing on average only 88 yards per game to opposing running backs, Atlanta risks turning more towards the air. And that’s good! The Bucs have allowed the second-most receptions (26) and receiving yards (243) to opposing rushers this season. In fact, they allow running backs a reception rate of 86.7% and an average of 8.10 yards per reception. A boon for a two-dimensional player such as Robinson.
The only offensive satisfaction from the Week 3 match against Denver, Bucky Irving (HB) confirmed last weekend against the Eagles. Gleaning 55 yards overall and scoring a touchdown, the rookie now positions himself as a serious competitor to Rachaad White. The two runners also obtained the same number of carries (10) and yards (49) on the ground in this match, proof that the duel is in full swing. Faced with a defense whose weak point is the ground game (582 yards and 4 touchdowns conceded), Irving can do well.
The prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Contested match in perspective. Three of the Falcons' four games ended with a 5-point margin or less this season. Less impacted by injuries, Atlanta will be able to use all its weapons to put pressure on Baker Mayfield (who has already suffered 15 sacks this season). If she succeeds, she will allow her talented defensive backs to express themselves. Nevertheless, apart from an accident against the Broncos, Tampa Bay managed its start to the season with authority. The defense is solid, Mayfield is at his best today and there are numerous threats in attack (Evans, Godwin, White, Irving). The balance leans slightly towards the Floridians.
