On American TV sets, the reminder is constant: the Celtics perhaps had the “easiest” journey to the Finals in history. No Jimmy Butler in the first round against the Heat, no Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell then Caris LeVert in the infirmary en route to the conference semi-final against the Cavaliers, no Tyrese Haliburton from the half-final conference against the Pacers…
The Ringer had also taken out the calculators to try to compare the simplest routes to the Finals, since 1984, by calculating the average regular season victories of the opponents encountered.
Boston, domination on all levels
In this little game, it is the Lakers of 1987 who seem to have encountered the three “weakest” opponents, on average, on their path, in order to reach the Finals.
A calculation which unfortunately ignores injuries, and The Ringer therefore pushed its calculations a little further, to try to take into account the absence of opposing stars.
For example, the Cavaliers are a 48-win team, but according to Basketball-Reference stats, they are only a 40-win team without Jarrett Allen, and a 29-win team without Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell. And a 26-win team without Jarrett Allen, Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert. In the conference semi-final, Cleveland was therefore, depending on the various missed matches, only a team with 35 victories in the regular season…
By refusing calculations like this, the Celtics of 2024 seem to have the “easiest” path to the Finals over the last forty years, just ahead of the Lakers of 1985.
In any case, Boston is the first team (since the implementation of “play-by play” in 1996) to have been the most dominant team in the regular season (11.7 points more than its opponents per 100 possessions) and in each of the playoff rounds: +17.0 in the first, +8.5 in the conference semi-final and +6.3 in the conference final.
The visual impression when we represent the biggest difference of the match (for Boston and its opponent) of each match of the Celtics campaign, is thus striking.
Dallas, the art of reversal
Jayson Tatum and his comrades took more than 20 points in advance during half of their “postseason” meetings, and they are at 10 victories and 0 defeats when they were able to take 10 points in advance!
Conversely, the Mavericks' course is very different, with much less margin over their opponents.
Luka Doncic and his team only led by 20 points in four “postseason” matches, and they only took a 10-point lead in 8 of their 17 matches. Without crushing their opponents, it was in the clutch that they were particularly solid, particularly against Wolves, and in their ability to overturn matches.
Because if they lost every time they found themselves more than 20 points behind their opponents, they on the other hand won three matches out of four when the opposing gap remained between 10 and 20 points…
THE BOSTON COURSE
First round: Miami (4-1)
Conference semi-final: Cleveland (4-1)
Conference final: Indiana (4-0)
THE DALLAS COURSE
First round: LA Clippers (4-2)
Conference semifinal: Oklahoma City (4-2)
Conference final: Minnesota (4-1)
