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Towards a salary cap of $200 million in 2028?

The new contract between the NBA and the broadcasters, which should be validated soon and will take effect from 2025/26, will allow the league to receive more than 7 billion dollars per season. This is 2.5 times more than during the previous contract, signed in 2014, which was worth $24 billion over nine years.

And as at the time, this increase in NBA revenue will have consequences on salaries. Our colleague Keith Smithspecialist in these questions of salary captook out the calculator.

He thus announces that, with the 10% annual increase (the maximum possible), the authorized payroll for the franchises will reach 200 million dollars for the 2028/2029 season (136 this season). Thus, the maximum salary, which cannot exceed 35% of the salary cap, will then reach an average of 72 million per year!

The maximum contract will therefore be 419 million over five seasons (with bonuses). Consequently, if a player signs for this duration, then for the last year of his contract, he will be able to receive 95 million greenbacks!

Avoiding the 2016 precedent

Figures that will obviously need to be verified in the coming years, but which confirm the significant and regular increase in the salary cap year after year. The 10% authorized limit thus avoids a real sudden explosion.

The evolution of the salary cap in the NBA

Indeed, if it followed the inflation of TV rights, then the salary cap for the 2025/26 season – the first year with the new TV contract – would already be $200 million. Or 45% increase, compared to that of 2024/25.

With a gradual and regulated increase, we do not repeat the situation of 2016. The old TV contract was signed in 2014 and started two years later. As a result, the salary cap benefited from this massive influx of dollars and increased by 35% in one year! We went from 63 million dollars authorized in 2015 to no less than 83 the following summer…

Result: the teams spent a lot and not always in an interesting way. There were many (very) bad contracts that summer. A quick reminder with this non-exhaustive list.

Chandler Parsons in Memphis: 95 million over four years
Nicolas Batum in Charlotte: 120 million over five years
Allen Crabbe in Portland: 75 million over four years
Evan Turner in Portland: 75 million over four years
Kent Bazemore in Atlanta: 70 million over four years
Luol Deng to the Lakers: 72 million over four years
Timofey Mozgov to the Lakers: 64 million over four years
Ian Mahinmi in Washington: 64 million over four years

Salary cap : this is the payroll defined by the NBA. NBA franchises have the opportunity to exceed it when they extend their own players or via “exceptions”.

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