Kansas City Chiefs: 11 wins – 6 losses, AFC West champions, third in the AFC
Crowned with the championship title the year Kansas City had just lost Tyreek Hill, all the lights seemed green to see the Chiefs fly through the 2023-2024 season.
However, this season, the Chiefs have never found rhythm on offense. A disappointing Travis Kelce, a nervous Patrick Mahomes… Kansas City has never looked so crumbly. But this observation can ultimately be qualified by the easy qualification for the playoffs.
So is the champion in danger?
How did they get there?
After an unlucky opening defeat against the Lions, the Chiefs had a string of 6 victories. The attack is not brilliant (but not zero) but we say that the Chiefs are in training with the loss of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and the new starting players in attack. It is especially the defense which gives satisfaction in this first part of the season.
Steve Spagnuolo's men only conceded 14.8 points on average over the first 7 games of the season. Supported by many young players, the defense becomes the team's locomotive and makes up for the slow start of the attack. A novelty for the Chiefs who then seem to be heading towards the double.
Except that the 2nd part of the season leaves doubt about the level of this team. Kansas City loses 5 games out of 10 and even loses twice in a row, a first in the Mahomes era. Defeats in particular against the Eagles and the Bills, title contenders, confirm the doubts.
Beyond the “raw” results, the content is worrying. The champions' attack cannot find the rhythm. The offensive line is mediocre, especially because of the tackles, the targets are making more mistakes and Travis Kelce is no longer dominant as much. Even Patrick Mahomes does not escape this “slump” with a disappointing level of play in many respects.
However, the level of defense and a weak division allow the Chiefs to return to the playoffs quite easily.
What face will the Chiefs offer in the playoffs? That of an attack that continues to slip or that of an iron defense?
The key player: Travis Kelce
With 27 receptions for 257 yards and 4 touchdowns during the 2023 playoffs, Travis Kelce was one of the great architects of the Chiefs' final success. Kansas City will need its equally dominant tight end in 2024 to hope to win.
But there is doubt. Kelce is coming off one of his weakest statistical seasons. Only 5 touchdowns, less than 1000 yards and above all an average of 10.6 yards per reception (the lowest of his career!)… Number 87 was not the usual “ultra-dominant” player and that's the whole game password that got stuck.
Without a number 1 receiver, Kansas City needs a Travis Kelce of his usual standards. The team's future in the finals depends on it.
Why are they going to go through with it?
The experience. In an AFC that is rarely open, the Chiefs can count on their experience. This group and this coaching staff have already won the Super Bowl twice. The squad is almost the same as last year. The young defensive players have one more season in their legs. A team that knows how to win is never a good match in an elimination match.
The Chiefs' defense could also allow Kansas City to go all the way. Led by players like Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid, this squad has never been as strong as this year. In addition, Steve Spagnuolo seems to have further raised his level in coaching. If in Kansas City the offense won titles, this year it could be the role of the defense.
Finally, and despite a complicated season, it is impossible not to mention Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs quarterback remains one of the best at his position and one of the most talented. A revival in the playoffs would not be improbable.
Why won't they go?
Yes, the talent and experience are there, but this attack worries us too much.
First, the problems on the offensive line have cost this team many actions and points this season. Jawan Taylor, although signed at a high price, is the illustration of this. Then, the chemistry between Mahomes and his targets is still not found. Without a true number 1 receiver, it's hard to imagine the Chiefs capable of beating the Ravens defense and its numerous matchup to manage.
Finally, the “battle” of turnovers has been a problem for Kansas City all season. In attack, the Chiefs lost 28 balls (24th in the league). In defense, although hard to beat, the men of Missouri only forced 17 turnovers (28th). A differential of -11 which places the Chiefs 29th in the league. If some may think that the Chiefs will not do worse in the playoffs, this inability to keep the ball or steal it throughout the season seems crippling in the final phase.
Injured players
No big star injured on the Chiefs side, but important players for the rotation. Indeed, the Chiefs have placed on the injured list for the season: Sky Moore, Bryan Cook and Jerick McKinnon. All titled, these players had their part in Kansas City's success.
These are all fewer solutions for coaching staff in the playoffs.
Prognosis
To start, the Chiefs will face the Miami Dolphins and Tyreek Hill. At home and with a possible absence of Jaylen Waddle, we can imagine the champions doing well. On the other hand, it gets tougher from the divisional with a possible trip to Buffalo. This is where the adventure ends in our opinion, with the Bills finally exorcising their demons against Mahomes and his gang.
