Are you familiar with the concept of “bold predictions” in the sports world? It’s about predicting something that isn’t totally unrealistic, but isn’t necessarily probable either.
For example, I could predict that Carlos Correa… is going to formalize a contract.
Pranks aside, it’s not about saying something like “the Yankees are going to win their division” since that’s pretty likely. We must say predictions that we do not believe 100%, but which are within the realm of the possible.
To predict, like Ben Nicholson-Smith, that Shohei Ohtani will make the playoffs in 2023 (but not in Anaheim) is bold.
So I decided, for the fun of it, to play along. With the help of colleagues Pierre-Olivier Poulin and Félix Forget, who submitted a few ideas to me, I decided to come up with five daring predictions.
See you in a year to see how badly I messed up?
Aaron Judge will hit less than 40 home runs
Aaron Judge, in career, has only two seasons of 40 homers behind the tie. He had 52 in 2017 and 62 last year, as you know.
Can he stay healthy and can he be protected well enough in the lineup to repeat?
Julio Rodriguez will win the American League MVP
Last year, Julio Rodriguez was an extraordinary player for the Mariners, who didn’t hesitate to offer him what looks like a lifetime contract.
And I see him rewarding them with a season worthy of the greats, thus forgetting that some players have rather the bad luck of the second year.
The Rays will crumble
Every year, some media seems to predict that the Rays will get away with it and that their model, based on the strength of the union, will come to an end.
But every year, the club makes us lie.
Me, I always said to myself that I was going to start predicting their descent into hell the day when we will have tangible proof that other clubs, like the Orioles, the Rangers or the Angels, will be able to start catching up with them.
But in the context of a daring prediction that is more or less believed, it does.
Manny Machado will win MVP and sign another $300M contract in San Diego
At the end of the season, Manny Machado will be entitled to get out of his contract and sign elsewhere than in San Diego. He will be halfway through his 10-year, $300 million contract.
My daring prediction? He will be the MVP of the National, will be out of his contract and will take advantage of the recent increase in contracts in MLB to extract another contract of $ 300 million over 10 years from the Padres. I do not see him leaving, but he will add guaranteed years to his agreement, in the end.
At the last second, the Red Sox will sign Rafael Devers
He is blood to suggest that the Sox will put their hands in their pockets, but I believe that with less than 24 hours before the start of the season, he will sign a huge contract extension.
He will receive around $350 million.
