To everyone’s surprise, it was the San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies who would pay for the championship series in the National.
The Padres therefore took out the Mets and Dodgers while the Phillies disposed of the Cardinals and Braves. We are talking here about the four powers of the National during the season.
I don’t know about you, but in the National, I don’t exactly hit 1,000 in my predictions. In fact, I have never chosen the Phillies or the Padres since the start of the playoffs.
That will obviously change for this series. But what is sad, what I will also bet for a third time in a row against one of the two teams.
I chose to go there against the Padres and say that the Phillies are going to the World Series after a seven-game fight.
Why do the Phillies in 7?
Comparison of position players
The Phillies had to punch to attack. We know that this is not necessarily the aspect that wins championships (pitchers often make the difference), but in Philadelphia, the recipe works.
Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Jean Segura and Alec Bohm have been among the good hitters in the group since the start of the playoffs. And we’re talking about an offense that relies on a sleeping Kyle Schwarber. Imagine when he will wake up for good…
This is not to say that Manny Machado Trent Grisham, Juan Soto, Austin Nola and Jurickson Profar should be underestimated, but I believe that the Phillies showed more punch since the start of the series.
Note also that defensively, we must advantage the Padres.
Compare rotations
Yu Darvish (who will pitch Game #1 tomorrow) and Joe Musgrove are two excellent pitchers. Musgrove has been particularly good this year in the playoffs.
Blake Snell has had his ups (against the Dodgers) and his downs (against the Mets) and he should start Game #2. It will have to offer a good performance. It remains to be seen if Mike Clevinger can do the job.
I consider the Phillies to have less depth, but Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, who will pitch the first two games, are terrific gunners. I expect to see them pitch twice each during the series.
The Phillies will have to “survive” when Ranger Suarez and Noah Syndergaard are on the mound.
Compare readings
Why will the Phillies need their starters? Because the Padres relievers, who have found a Josh Hader in full possession of his means, are doing a lot of work.
If we forget the Astros, the Guardians and the Rays (over two games), it is the Padres relievers who have the best earned run average since the start of the playoffs. It’s not even close.
- 2022 playoff Padres reliever ERA: 2.19 in 24.2 innings
- 2022 playoff Phillies reliever ERA: 4.15 in 21.2 innings
imponderables
Both teams have a new manager in 2022. The Padres are obviously happy with what the good Bob Melvin is able to offer them, but the Phillies are 65-46 on the season under Thomson. They are also 5-1 in the playoffs.
I give the advantage to the Padres because of the manager’s experience, but let’s say the Phillies are not in a bad position.
On paper, there seem to be more reasons to pick the Padres, who have taken out the Mets and Dodgers, but let’s not underestimate Philly. There seems to be some magic going on and I believe Aaron Nola, single handedly, will win two out of four games and be the series MVP.
One thing is certain, in any case: the team that will advance to the World Series will not have home advantage, but will rely on a Nola (either Aaron or Austin) in its ranks.
